Abstract

Custom Truck One Source Inc will report quarterly results after market close (Post Market) on April 27, 2026; our preview reviews last quarter’s performance, consensus expectations for revenue, margins and EPS, and key business drivers and risks into the print.

Market Forecast

Market estimates suggest Custom Truck One Source Inc will deliver revenue of 448.17 million US dollars for the current quarter, implying year-over-year growth of 2.55%. Consensus points to EBIT of 17.46 million US dollars, indicating a 23.56% year-over-year decline, and to an adjusted EPS of approximately -0.06, which implies an 8.33% year-over-year improvement in the per-share result despite remaining in negative territory this quarter. Forecasts currently do not include a specific gross margin or net margin figure; the directional mix implicit in the EBIT outlook indicates modest top-line growth but thinner margins versus the prior-year period.

Within the company’s revenue mix, the last disclosed breakdown indicates that equipment sales are the largest contributor, with rental and parts-and-services providing recurring revenue support. Based on the latest mix percentages applied to the prior quarter’s total, equipment sales would account for roughly 354.46 million US dollars, rental 137.54 million US dollars, and parts-and-services 36.21 million US dollars; investors are set to focus on how delivery timing in equipment and utilization trends in rental shape the quarter’s earnings profile. The rental operation remains the most promising driver of through-cycle earnings stability given its recurring characteristics and sensitivity to utilization and rate management; management’s commentary on fleet turns, rate discipline, and maintenance intensity will be central to the quarter’s outlook for cash generation and margin trajectory.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Custom Truck One Source Inc reported revenue of 528.18 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 23.30%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 20.88 million US dollars with a net margin of 3.95%, and adjusted EPS of 0.09, up 350% year over year. Net profit accelerated sharply on a sequential basis, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 462.67%, highlighting a favorable mix and cost execution exiting the fiscal year. In the same period, the equipment-heavy revenue mix skew and operating leverage supported EBIT of 51.98 million US dollars, while adjusted EPS outperformed market expectations.

A key business highlight from the quarter was the earnings outperformance versus consensus on EPS despite revenue landing below top-line expectations, underscoring disciplined cost control and mix management at the end of the fiscal year. Main business highlights show an unambiguous concentration in equipment sales, which represented about 67.10% of revenue in the latest disclosed mix, with rental at 26.04% and parts-and-services at 6.86%; applying those shares to last quarter’s revenue of 528.18 million US dollars implies approximate segment contributions of 354.46 million US dollars for equipment, 137.54 million US dollars for rental, and 36.21 million US dollars for parts-and-services.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Equipment sales and delivery cadence

For the upcoming quarter, the primary swing factor remains the equipment sales business, which has the largest weight in Custom Truck One Source Inc’s revenue mix. Market expectations of 448.17 million US dollars in revenue with a modest 2.55% year-over-year increase imply a sequential step-down from the prior quarter’s 528.18 million US dollars, consistent with normal seasonality in deliveries and backlog conversion. The implied margin picture—an EBIT forecast of 17.46 million US dollars, down 23.56% year over year—suggests that unit mix, pricing discipline, and delivery phasing could pressure profitability even as absolute revenue holds up on an annual basis. Investors will look for commentary on the pace of shipments, parts availability, and any supply-chain frictions that could defer revenue recognition late in the quarter. The timing of large orders and acceptance criteria matters for when revenue is recognized, and even a small number of high-value units slipping beyond the quarter-end can create visible variability versus consensus. Pricing and product mix will also be in focus: higher-value specialized builds could support revenue per unit but carry different margin profiles depending on complexity and labor content. Given the gap between last quarter’s adjusted EPS of 0.09 and this quarter’s forecast at approximately -0.06, expense timing, production schedules, and absorption of fixed costs through the factories will be scrutinized for their impact on gross profit and EBIT.

Most promising business: Rental utilization and rate management

The rental business provides recurring revenue and is often less tied to lumpier equipment delivery cycles, making it a stabilizing force for Custom Truck One Source Inc’s earnings trajectory. Using the latest mix shares, rental would represent roughly 137.54 million US dollars of last quarter’s revenue; while current-quarter rental revenue is not broken out in consensus, utilization, average rates, and maintenance intensity will determine how much EBITDA carryover the company generates through the seasonal trough. Investors will pay close attention to commentary on fleet size, age, and planned dispositions of older units because depreciation and maintenance affect unit economics and EBITDA conversion. Management’s approach to prioritizing rate integrity over utilization, or vice versa, will influence the near-term EBIT bridge, especially given the consensus view that EBIT will contract year over year this quarter. Seasonal patterns can reduce utilization early in the calendar year, but proactive rate discipline and targeted capital allocation to high-demand asset types can offset part of that pressure, supporting margin resilience. The rental segment also interacts with the parts-and-services business: as fleet activity increases later in the year, service revenue capture can improve, offering an incremental margin tailwind. How effectively the company aligns fleet availability with contract opportunities that begin in late spring can set up a better sequential trajectory into the next quarter, which investors may start to price in during the current print.

Stock price drivers this quarter: Margin trajectory, cost discipline, and cash conversion

Given the consensus path—revenue up 2.55% year over year but EBIT down 23.56%—the stock’s near-term reaction will likely hinge on how credibly management frames margin trajectory through midyear. A clear bridge from last quarter’s 23.30% gross margin to expected levels this quarter, including the effects of product mix, overhead absorption, and pricing, will be central to investor confidence. SG&A cadence is another key lever: if overhead growth outpaces the modest revenue increase, it can amplify the EBIT downdraft implied by consensus and intensify scrutiny on expense discipline. Cash conversion and working capital are equally important; in a sequential step-down quarter, efficient inventory and receivables management can protect free cash flow even if earnings compress, which could be supportive for the share price despite a lower EBIT print. Interest expense remains a swing factor for net income and EPS when EBIT is compressed; in the last quarter, net margin was 3.95% on GAAP net income of 20.88 million US dollars, and the market will be sensitive to any change in net interest costs that could skew EPS toward or away from the current estimate of approximately -0.06. The company’s commentary on capital expenditure priorities, especially for rental fleet refresh and parts infrastructure, will also matter because it affects depreciation and future utilization potential, both of which feed back into margin expectations. Finally, any early read on second-quarter demand and delivery ramp can reshape the earnings run-rate narrative; if management signals a constructive sequential rebound with stable or improving margins, investor attention may shift from near-term compression to the recovery arc, dampening downside risks assumed in the current EBIT forecast.

Secondary earnings levers: Parts-and-services, used equipment sales, and backlog visibility

While it represents a smaller share of revenue, parts-and-services is a notable margin contributor because it drives attachment to both the owned rental fleet and customer-owned equipment. At an implied 36.21 million US dollars in last quarter’s revenue using the latest mix, incremental growth here can deliver attractive drop-through and partially offset gross margin variability in equipment sales. The company’s ability to capture service work that accompanies fleet activity in later months can build a more stable earnings base over time. Used equipment dispositions are another lever: the realized price on disposals versus book value affects reported gains and can introduce quarter-to-quarter variability in gross profit and EBIT. A disciplined approach to cycling older units when used pricing supports it can enhance overall fleet performance and reduce maintenance drag, feeding back into higher effective utilization and margins. Backlog and order book commentary will shape expectations for the rest of the year; stronger visibility allows investors to model delivery cadence and mix with more confidence, narrowing the range of possible outcomes around revenue and margin. Given the current consensus expecting a year-over-year EBIT decline despite revenue growth, any evidence of an improving backlog mix toward higher-margin builds or a faster conversion pace in the second quarter would be an incremental positive.

EPS bridge and what to watch in management commentary

The forecast for adjusted EPS near -0.06 represents a notable swing from the prior quarter’s 0.09. Several factors likely contribute to this expected move: lower sequential revenue from equipment deliveries, thinner gross margins due to mix and absorption, and a steadier overhead base that weighs more when units are lower. The degree of operating leverage in the model will determine whether a modest shortfall in sales translates into a disproportionately larger impact on EBIT and EPS; management’s commentary on factory throughput, overtime management, and supplier timing will help investors gauge this leverage. Interest expense and tax rate assumptions also play a role in translating EBIT to EPS; any updates on debt levels, refinancing, or interest rate exposure can shift the EPS trajectory, especially when operating income is under pressure. On guidance, investors will look for clarity on the expected seasonal ramp into the next quarter and whether the order book supports a return to positive EPS in the near term, reestablishing the run-rate closer to what was achieved in the previous quarter. Disclosures on cost actions, productivity initiatives, and pricing discipline can further inform whether the EBIT compression forecasted by consensus is likely to be temporary or more persistent.

Analyst Opinions

Based on recently collected views, the balance of opinions skews bearish. A Sell rating from a major global bank maintained a 6.00 US dollars price target on Custom Truck One Source Inc, highlighting concerns about near-term earnings power and risk-reward into the print. The key elements in that view align with the current consensus: revenue is expected to rise only 2.55% year over year while EBIT is forecast to decline 23.56%, implying margin compression and a tougher translation to earnings per share this quarter. The analyst’s stance emphasizes the potential for seasonal headwinds and delivery timing to pressure gross margins and absorption, ultimately weighing on adjusted EPS, which is projected to pivot to approximately -0.06 from 0.09 last quarter. The Sell viewpoint also implicitly focuses on how overhead growth and interest expense could constrain net results when operating income is lighter, a dynamic consistent with the forecasted negative EPS despite positive year-over-year revenue growth. In this framework, the stock’s immediate reaction may depend on whether management can credibly guide to a sequential improvement in the second quarter and deliver a cleaner bridge from revenue to EBIT, thereby challenging the conservative margin assumptions embedded in bearish cases. A positive surprise on segment mix—such as higher rental contribution with solid utilization and rate momentum, or a stronger parts-and-services attachment—could undermine the bearish thesis by cushioning margins and improving earnings quality even if top-line growth is modest. Given that the recorded opinions in the latest window include a prominent Sell call and lack an offsetting majority of bullish revisions, the dominant institutional stance remains cautious heading into the announcement, with attention squarely on margin resilience, free cash flow discipline, and the pathway to re-accelerating EPS beyond the current-quarter trough.