U.S. Treasury Rebound in Sight, but Powell's Tone Will Determine the Path Forward

Stock News
09/23

U.S. Treasury bonds are heading toward their first gain in five trading days, as traders anticipate that upcoming speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials may signal further rate cuts. Treasury yields across various maturities are currently declining, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 2 basis points to 4.13%.

The Treasury market has been under pressure recently, as Fed officials signaled caution regarding further monetary easing last week, with Monday's statements continuing this tone. With multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak on Tuesday—including Chairman Powell and policymakers Goolsbee, Bowman, and Bostic—investors are seeking clearer directional signals.

Given the high uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future policy path, investors are currently favoring positions that could still generate returns even if unexpected economic fluctuations derail rate cut plans. Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, stated: "The market hopes Powell can clarify some of the confusion caused by last week's characterization of rate cuts as 'risk management' measures." He added that the morning's two-year Treasury auction could be well-received by the market.

When Powell implemented the widely anticipated rate cut last week, he described it as a "risk management" move, emphasizing the need to balance signs of labor market softening against upside inflation risks. Since that decision was announced, Fed officials have sent conflicting signals about the timing and likelihood of further easing.

Fed official Musalem indicated that there is limited room for further rate cuts, while Miran—speaking for the first time since being appointed by Trump as a Fed official—argued that current monetary policy remains overly restrictive.

Market focus has now shifted to Tuesday's release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, as investors seek evidence of U.S. economic weakening. Additionally, GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data to be released later this week are also under close investor scrutiny.

Bruce Richards, Chief Investment Officer at Marathon Asset Management, stated in an interview: "The job market growth rate is currently slowing, and more importantly, the neutral interest rate level is far below the current actual rate." He expects an additional 125 basis points of rate cuts ahead, noting: "The Federal Reserve still has a long way to go on the rate-cutting path."

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