On May 13, although international gold prices have retreated approximately 12% from their yearly highs, market sentiment remains constructive regarding gold's medium-term outlook. McGraw Hill notes that this recent pullback primarily reflects the macro negative spillover effects from energy price shocks, rather than a fundamental weakening of gold's safe-haven attributes. The allocation strategies of institutional funds have not shifted directionally, still focusing on medium- to long-term positioning, with long-term capital's recognition of structural narratives not significantly diminished.

Analyzing the driving logic, rising energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, subsequently supporting real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, exerting short-term pressure on gold priced in dollars. McGraw Hill analysis indicates similar historical occurrences, such as during the initial phase of geopolitical conflicts in 2022 when gold also experienced a rapid surge followed by a correction, with the current adjustment pace being even faster. The market anticipates that once energy prices stabilize, inflation recedes, and monetary policy shifts back toward easing, gold will regain upward momentum, with the resurgence of safe-haven narratives also attracting incremental allocation capital.

ING commodity strategist Manthey forecasts that gold may challenge the $5,000 per ounce target by year-end. She emphasizes that ongoing gold purchases by global central banks provide solid underlying support for the market. Although quarterly buying volumes exhibit periodic fluctuations, the trend toward reserve diversification continues, with gold's strategic value not diminished by short-term volatility. Institutional observers note that central bank gold purchasing patterns and ETF fund flows are two key signals for assessing gold's medium-term direction.

The gold market is currently in a phase where macro headwinds coexist with structural tailwinds. McGraw Hill suggests investors focus on three core variables: energy price trends, Federal Reserve policy paths, and changes in real yields. It advises maintaining perspective on short-term fluctuations while seizing opportunities for medium-term positioning, avoiding emotional reactions to price pullbacks that could disrupt long-term asset allocation decisions.