The first batch of lock-up share expirations did not trigger the massive sell-off that markets had feared, with SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares rallying for a second consecutive session, approaching the $135 IPO price for the first time since breaching that key level last month. On Friday, SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares surged nearly 16%, bringing the two-day cumulative gain to approximately 23%, with the company's market value increasing by more than $327 billion.

Despite the first tranche of lock-up shares officially expiring on Thursday, allowing some early investors to sell their holdings, buyers remained active, driving the stock's continued rebound. Following the lock-up expiration, the number of tradable shares in SpaceX (SPCX.US) more than doubled from 639 million at the IPO to 1.55 billion. Previously, several analysts had warned that the first lock-up expiry could exert significant selling pressure on the stock.

Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak, noted that as the lock-up expiration trading period gradually concludes, the market will ultimately need to decide whether it is willing to pay such a high valuation for a company that still requires years to fully realize its growth potential. In fact, before this rally, SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares had been under persistent pressure. After hitting an all-time high shortly after its listing, the stock subsequently erased more than $1 trillion in market value.

Earlier this week, the company released its first earnings report since going public, which saw shares plunge 14% in a single day on Wednesday due to higher-than-expected capital expenditure in its AI business. However, the lock-up expiration did not trigger the anticipated wave of selling, instead prompting some short sellers to cover their positions, further boosting the stock price. According to data from S3 Partners, approximately 250 million shares of SpaceX (SPCX.US) are currently sold short, representing about 16% of the current float. Before the lock-up of roughly 912 million shares expired, this ratio had been as high as 36% due to the smaller free float.

Maley said it is certain that some bearish positions were forced to close on the day, which became a significant factor driving the stock higher. Before this rally, investors who had shorted SpaceX (SPCX.US) had accumulated over $9 billion in paper profits from the stock's sustained decline. Analysts point out, however, that lock-up share expirations merely grant early investors the right to sell, not an obligation to do so immediately.

Meanwhile, Wall Street remains broadly optimistic about SpaceX (SPCX.US). On Friday, Argus Research upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Buy", arguing that the company's AI infrastructure investments are already showing signs of "rapid returns." Data shows that nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX (SPCX.US) currently rate it a "Buy," with an average price target of around $221—representing over 65% upside from Friday's closing price—indicating that institutions remain confident in the company's long-term growth prospects.