Analysis of the market shows that due to the Trump administration's continuous softening messages, the stock market has rebounded sharply. Today, A-shares surged significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index directly surpassing 3900 points. However, while the Hong Kong market also gapped up, it displayed a weaker trend towards the end of trading, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.65%. According to reports, U.S. President Trump stated on October 20 that the U.S. and China are expected to reach a fair and mutually beneficial trade agreement. Trump also revealed plans to visit China early next year. As of Monday (October 20), the government shutdown has entered its 20th day. Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, believes that the government shutdown may end sometime this week and emphasized that it should be resolved by the Senate. The constant updates aim to stabilize the situation. However, the latest updates indicate that Russian President's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced on the 21st that the specific meeting date for the U.S. and Russian leaders has not been determined, and he denied media claims suggesting that both presidents would arrive in Budapest simultaneously. Sources have indicated discrepancies between Rubio and Lavrov regarding expectations for Russia potentially ceasing its offensive in Ukraine. Trump's idea is to negotiate with Russia before the APEC talks at the end of the month to gain leverage, but Russia's apparent unwillingness creates a shadow over the upcoming U.S.-China leaders' talks, which is essentially the primary reason behind the weakened Hong Kong stocks towards the close. Reports on October 20 indicated concerns that the Trump administration may use intelligence to "violate human rights" and "assist Russia," leading the Netherlands to restrict intelligence collaboration with the U.S. This signals that the Netherlands, caught between conflicting interests, has adopted a pragmatic approach in discussions with China. In Japan, ruling Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan's first female Prime Minister today (21st). Takaichi continues with the economic policies of Shinzo Abe, implementing a looser strategy characterized by a weaker yen and stimulated stock market growth. The technology sector remains active, with Morgan Stanley highlighting on October 19 that the storage industry is in the early to mid-stages of a robust upcycle. Despite related stocks having reached new highs, the best upside may yet to come, and investors should not exit prematurely due to "fear of heights." Domestically, Guangdong Province's government issued the "Guangdong Province Action Plan for High-Quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry Empowered by Artificial Intelligence (2025-2027)," encouraging municipalities to set up "model vouchers" to support enterprises in purchasing industrial model services. A small piece of news circulating in financial circles today discussed a significant breakthrough in 1.6T optical modules. Related stocks such as 建滔積層板 (01888) and 長飛光纖光纜 (06869) both rose over 7%, while core stocks like 中芯國際 (00981) and 中興通訊 (00763) increased over 3%. Apple achieved another historical high, as a research report by Counterpoint revealed that the early sales of the iPhone 17 series in China and the U.S. significantly surged, outperforming the iPhone 16 series by 14%, with sales of the basic iPhone 17 nearly doubling in China. Stocks like 高偉電子 (01415), 鴻騰精密 (06888), and 藍思科技 (06613) witnessed gains of over 5%, while 丘鈦科技 (01478), 舜宇 (02382), 富智康 (02038), and 比亞迪電子 (00285) surpassed 3% gains. The latest emerging theme is the rise of the deep earth economy concept, as China has nearly reached its limits in developing shallow (<1000 meters) resources, and dependency on core resources from abroad remains high. Deep earth has become the only supplementary source. In terms of energy security, dependence on foreign oil and gas exceeds 70% long-term, while resources deeper than 8000 meters in the Tarim and Sichuan basins make up over 80% of the country's total. For instance, the Sichuan region alone has over 50 trillion cubic meters of deep natural gas resources, sufficient to meet China's consumption needs for 20 years. Strategic mineral reserves for key minerals in new energy vehicles (lithium, cobalt, nickel) are only enough to support 15 years at shallow depths, while mining 2000 meters underground can double resource availability; the deep earth lithium reserves in Yichun, Jiangxi, reached 5 million tons. Potential for alternative energy indicates that the geothermal resources above 3000 meters equate to 860 trillion tons of standard coal, coincidentally 2600 times China's annual energy consumption. China has tackled ten core technologies for deep earth development, achieving complete domestic substitution along the supply chain. According to predictions from the Ministry of Natural Resources, the global scale of the deep earth economy could surpass $25 trillion by 2030, with market size expected to reach 3-5 trillion yuan per year during China’s "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an anticipated growth rate of 40% during the initial phase of commercialization (2026-2028). Hong Kong stocks closely related to the deep earth sector include 中石化油服 (01033), which gained 12%, and 山東墨龍 (00568), which rose over 8%. It is reported that over the next couple of days, cold air will move east and south, affecting vast areas of central and eastern China. Many northern regions will continue experiencing low temperatures, while the southern regions are expected to hit new lows for the second half of the year. On October 20, 波司登 (03998) appointed renowned British designer Kim Jones as the creative director for its newly established AREAL urban line, launching the AREAL collection. Kim Jones previously served as the menswear artistic director for French luxury brand Dior under LVMH and left the position in January. Market expectations suggest this could enhance sales, with 波司登 (03998) rising over 9%. Developed by Team Soda, the duck-themed PvE overhead shooting game "Duck Off," published by 嗶哩嗶哩-W (09626), has surpassed 500,000 copies sold since its release on October 16. Additionally, the international edition of the card RPG game "Dudufu Mischief" was launched on October 9, topping the free game charts in China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Japan shortly after release. In October, 嗶哩嗶哩-W (09626) stock surged nearly 9%. In another privatization move, 安能物流 (09956) recently announced that it has received a conditional privatization proposal from an investor consortium comprising DH Capital, Temasek, and Dama Capital. The privatization could lead to 安能物流 (09956) being delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As of the announcement date, DH Capital holds about 24.32% of 安能物流 (09956), while Temasek and Dama Capital do not own any shares in it. The stock increased over 10% today. Recently, there has been repeated mention of airline stocks, and here is an additional insight: Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith stated in an interview that Western European airlines need to avoid Russian airspace when flying to Asian routes, which adds 2 to 2.5 hours of flight time, while Chinese airlines do not face such restrictions, putting Western European airlines at a competitive disadvantage. Moreover, passengers are reluctant to spend an additional two hours on already long intercontinental flights. Thus, the European market represents a significant growth opportunity. This month, the Trump administration threatened to ban Chinese airlines from flying over Russian airspace on routes to and from the U.S., which appears practically unfeasible. The leading player in this sector is 中國東方航空 (00670). Focus on sectors: According to the Hubei Provincial Government website, on October 16, Hubei Vice Governor and Governor Li Dianxun conducted research on state-owned "three assets" management reform in Wuhan and held a meeting to arrange key tasks. Li Dianxun pointed out the need to deepen the reform of state-owned "three assets" management and accelerate the establishment of a large financial system. This is an inherent requirement to improve the efficiency of state-owned economic operations and is critical for stabilizing growth, mitigating risks, and safeguarding people's livelihoods. There is a further need for deepened understanding of the three core principles of assetization, securitization, and leveraging of all state-owned resources, as well as the scientific application of four methods: use if possible, sell if not, rent if unsold, and finance if feasible, to promote greater success in state-owned "three assets" management reform throughout the province. Currently, this process is being promoted in Hubei, and if successful, it is expected to be adopted by others. The immediate beneficiaries appear to be the securities sector, such as 中金公司 (03908), 中信證券 (06030), and 中信建投證券 (06066). Company-specific opportunities include 比亞迪電子 (00285): AI business is developing rapidly, and the electric vehicle supply chain is generally positive. According to NVIDIA's information, 比亞迪電子 (00285) will become a power component supplier for NVIDIA's new 800VDCAI server architecture, positioning 比亞迪電子 (00285) as a probable comprehensive AI server solution provider in NVIDIA's AI server systems. 比亞迪 (BYD) has achieved sales exceeding 3.26 million from January to September, retaining its top position, with the TianShenEye model accumulating over 1.7 million units. Comments: the company is a core subsidiary of BYD Group. Regarding automotive electronics: the intelligent upgrade, smart driving, and smart cockpits are involved in the 'TianShenEye' intelligent driving system, covering multiple models. The self-developed "cloud lift" intelligent suspension system has commenced mass production. In terms of AI business: through close collaboration with NVIDIA, significant achievements have been made in liquid-cooling technology. The company gained NVIDIA certification in March 2025 suitable for NVIDIA's GB200/300NVL72 systems. BYD Electronic aims to begin shipments to overseas customers in the second half of 2025. The company has mastered immersion liquid cooling technology and is planning to launch corresponding server products. The company is developing AMR robots based on NVIDIA's platform to promote intelligent manufacturing. Apple is deepening its collaboration with BYD, planning to produce three home devices in Vietnam: In Spring 2026, a 7-inch home control screen (with a FaceTime camera), priced around 2499 yuan; by the end of 2026, a home security camera; and in 2027, a self-mobile desktop robot equipped with motors and sensors. This robot, along with the home central business, is expected to become a new growth driver for BYD Electronic. The company is also branching into emerging consumer electronics such as foldable screens and AI glasses. BYD's increasing global competitiveness positively impacts its subsidiary BYD Electronic. BYD Electronic has advantages in the electric vehicle components sector, benefiting from the overall positive trend in the industry. Moving forward, with the continuous development in automotive intelligence, AI, and consumer electronics, insider buying reflects confidence in the company's future development, and profitability is expected to enhance in the second half of the year.
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