The international gold price staged a weak retreat last week (June 22-26), testing and then reclaiming the $4,000 per ounce level. The weekly candlestick chart shows a small bearish candle with a lower shadow. The price opened at $4,144.68, reached a high of $4,221.13, and dipped to a low of $3,958.81 before closing at $4,088.98. The weekly range was $262.32, with a net decline of $68.83, representing a 1.66% drop.

Overall, the weak downtrend that began in mid-April continues. However, the recovery of the key $4,000 psychological level indicates strong underlying buying support. This suggests the market may have found a preliminary bottom, and perhaps the darkest period for gold in June has passed. Nevertheless, under pressure from macro factors, a pattern of low-level trading is likely to persist for some time.

Geopolitical Fluctuations and Strengthening Fed Hawkishness

Fundamentally, gold remains pressured within the context of interest rate hike expectations. While Middle East geopolitical factors cause short-term disturbances, their impact is gradually waning, and the overall weak trend in gold has not yet been reversed.

Regarding the Middle East situation, the US-Iran agreement entered an implementation phase. The first half of last week saw progress in peace talks, with parties agreeing to reach a final deal within 60 days. The US also agreed to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing a gradual resumption of oil shipments. However, after Iran attacked commercial ships transiting the strait again, US forces struck related Iranian facilities, leading to the most serious military friction since the memorandum was signed. This caused a short-term resurgence in geopolitical risk, prompting a rebound in gold prices from lower levels.

Overall, friction and gamesmanship during the US-Iran agreement's implementation phase are likely to become the norm. The impact of Middle East geopolitics on gold, which previously created a trend of indirect bearishness by pushing up oil prices, may now shift to short-term, pulse-like disturbances, leaning towards a neutral-to-slightly-bullish effect.

In terms of Federal Reserve monetary policy, hawkish signals continue to strengthen, solidifying expectations for a September rate hike. Fed official Kashkari explicitly stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to forecast one rate hike this year in his latest economic projections, with rates expected to hold steady through 2027. As an FOMC voting member, Kashkari's clear guidance further cements market expectations for a September hike. Currently, the market's overall hawkish Fed expectations have gradually become the primary pressure on gold prices.

Regarding economic data, US economic resilience has reinforced tightening expectations, supporting a persistently strong dollar. The final revision of Q1 GDP was significantly upward, while employment and retail data also showed strength, reflecting a gradually strengthening US economy. The US Dollar Index surged during the week, challenging a high near 101.8, which also pressured short-term gold prices.

In summary, three factors—easing Middle East tensions, rate hike expectations, and a strong dollar—have collectively weighed on gold recently. However, the sudden conflict after US-Iran talks could shift gold's narrative towards short-term safe-haven demand. As the month-end approaches, following a sharp short-term decline, gold may see an upward correction. This week, attention should be paid to uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran agreement's execution and the upcoming non-farm payrolls data. Additionally, the upcoming US Independence Day holiday will likely dampen market trading activity.

Technical Picture Shows No Clear Improvement, Viewed as Oversold Rebound for Now

Analyzing the medium-term technical structure, the weekly chart shows gold has been in a volatile downtrend since mid-April, largely moving between the 5-week moving average and the lower Bollinger Band. With four consecutive weeks of decline, the overall trend shows no clear signs of improvement and is still viewed as weak. Currently, the 5-week MA is around $4,260, and the lower Bollinger Band is near $3,990. Gold may continue trading within this range this week. However, last week's rapid stop and rebound below $4,000 indicates strong support at lower levels.

The daily candlestick pattern shows gold is within a descending channel formed by the middle and lower Bollinger Bands. After finding support near the lower band for two consecutive days last week, prices rebounded sharply on Friday, forming a preliminary short-term bottom. This suggests potential for a further move towards the middle Bollinger Band near $4,240. Looking at the descending channel from May, last week's support near the channel's lower edge suggests that if prices can break above the middle Bollinger Band, they might challenge the channel's upper resistance, roughly around $4,300.

Furthermore, technical indicators show the MACD's bearish green bars are shortening, indicating a slowing downtrend. However, the KDJ indicator's low-level turn has not yet formed a bullish crossover. Therefore, the current upward move is temporarily treated as an oversold rebound.

In conclusion, after finding support and rebounding below $4,000, gold has formed a preliminary short-term low and is currently in a rebound phase. The $4,250-$4,300 zone remains a key resistance area, and caution is warranted against another potential rejection and pullback from these levels.