Market Analysis

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump stated he is seriously considering launching a major military operation in Iran, which would surpass the scale of the previous "Epic Fury" operation, and emphasized that the US military is fully prepared. Trump also indicated that Israel would quickly join the military action if requested by the US. The US House of Representatives has again voted to pass a resolution requiring the Trump administration to stop the war against Iran. Iranian military sources stated that the Iranian military has simulated various scenarios for a US attack and is prepared to counter a potential ground invasion. On the tariff front, the Office of the United States Trade Representative issued a notice, citing the so-called "forced labor" under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, to impose tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on dozens of countries and regions, replacing the soon-to-expire global import tariffs. The new tariffs will take effect on July 24, Eastern Time. It is understood that exemptions for the new tariffs include oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and food. The US Trade Office stated that tariffs will be imposed on 60 economies this time.

Futures Prices and Trading Volume

On 2026-07-23, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 898.48 yuan/gram and closed at 899.08 yuan/gram, a change of -0.01% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 41,087 lots, with open interest at 129,725 lots. During the night session on the same day, the main gold contract opened at 888.00 yuan/gram and closed at 883.62 yuan/gram, down 1.72% from the afternoon close. On 2026-07-23, the main Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 14,481.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 14,614.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.57% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 787,649 lots, with open interest at 254,670 lots. During the night session, the main silver contract opened at 14,210 yuan/kilogram and closed at 14,110 yuan/kilogram, down 3.45% from the afternoon close.

US Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring

On 2026-07-23, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.67%, a change of 0.04% from the previous day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.36%, a change of -0.01% from the previous day.

Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume

On 2026-07-23, for the Au2608 contract, long positions decreased by 5,598 lots from the previous day, while short positions decreased by 2,432 lots. The total trading volume for gold contracts on the previous trading day was 284,842 lots, a change of -6.26% from the previous day. For silver, on the Ag2608 contract, long positions decreased by 7,056 lots, and short positions decreased by 5,998 lots. The total trading volume for silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,084,190 lots, a change of 1.58% from the previous day.

Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking

For precious metal ETFs, gold ETF holdings were 1,007.87 tons yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings were 14,939 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking

Futures-Spot Spread: On 2026-07-23, the domestic gold premium was -1.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -216.99 yuan/kilogram. Gold-to-Silver Ratio: The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 61.52, a change of -0.58% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-to-silver ratio was 69.41, a change of 0.60% from the previous day.

Fundamentals

For the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market on the previous trading day (2026-07-23), gold trading volume was 30,658 kilograms, a change of -24.94% from the previous trading day. Silver trading volume was 390,902 kilograms, a change of 9.89% from the previous day. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and silver delivery volume was 3,360 kilograms.

Strategy

Gold: Neutral. Market risk sentiment is currently brewing, which may slightly weaken demand for gold investment. Therefore, it is expected that gold prices will mainly fluctuate in the near term. The fluctuation range for the Au2608 contract is estimated to be between 860 yuan/gram and 920 yuan/gram. Silver: Neutral. The logic for silver is currently similar to that of gold. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The fluctuation range for the Ag2608 contract is estimated to be between 13,500 yuan/kilogram and 15,000 yuan/kilogram. Arbitrage: Pause. Options: Pause.

Risks

Overseas liquidity risk. Speculative positions continue to exit.