On September 29th, Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst from TF International Securities, released the latest industry report on XIAOMI-W.

Xiaomi shares fell 2% in Hong Kong trading.

1. Shipment plan cut: My latest industry surveys point to a significant ~20% cut for the Xiaomi 17 series shipments (from an original target of ~10M units). If there is no further step-up in pricing or marketing going forward, total shipments for the 17 series could fall below the 15 series’ ~8M units.

2. Mix shift behind the cut: The cut is mainly due to weaker-than-expected demand for the standard model. It was expected to account for ~50–55% of total 17 series, but after launch it’s tracking at only ~15–20%. While Pro Max and Pro models have seen incremental orders, they don’t fully offset the order cuts on the standard 17, resulting in the ~20% overall revision.

3. Competitive pressure from iPhone: A key reason the Xiaomi 17 standard model is underperforming is Apple’s stronger-than-expected iPhone 17 standard model in the Chinese market.

4. Two premium-segment competition challenges for 2026 (Chinese market): 1) Apple’s iPhone appears to have put the worst behind it in China. Xiaomi will need to face competitive pressure from Apple’s new 2026 models (a new iPhone SE in 1H26 and a new high-end iPhone series in 2H26). 2) Demand for Huawei’s premium models has been softer than expected due to app-compatibility issues under HarmonyOS NEXT; this is expected to improve in 2026, or Huawei may roll out a broader official reflashing program (back to Android-compatible HarmonyOS).

5. What to watch next: If sales of the Xiaomi 17 series during China’s National Day Golden Week do not improve further, lowering prices on select models is one lever to boost total shipments of its premium lineup. Looking ahead to 2026, Xiaomi 18 series competitive strategy and on-device (edge) AI roadmap will be key to whether its premium models can return to growth.