Eurozone Inflation in November Shows Divergence: France Holds Steady While Spain Remains Elevated

Stock News
11/28

France's inflation rate unexpectedly remained stable in November, while Spain's slowdown fell short of analyst expectations, highlighting diverging price trends among the eurozone's major economies. Data showed France's inflation held at 0.8%, below market forecasts of a slight rise to 1%. Meanwhile, Spain's inflation eased to 3.1%, compared with economists' projection of 3%.

These figures are part of a series of inflation reports released on the same day from the eurozone's four largest economies, providing crucial insights for the European Central Bank's (ECB) final interest rate decision of the year in December. Italy and Germany are set to release their CPI data at 18:00 and 21:00 Beijing time, respectively. Markets expect Italy's inflation to stay at 1.3%, while Germany's may edge up to 2.4%.

For the broader eurozone, whose inflation data will be published on December 2, the headline rate is likely to remain at 2.1%, matching October's figure and staying close to the ECB's 2% target.

Senior eurozone economist David Powell noted, "November inflation may stabilize before resuming a downward trend in December. While the ECB Governing Council remains hesitant to ease policy, further disinflation could increase pressure for monetary loosening next year."

Indeed, ECB policymakers remain optimistic about the current inflation outlook, with no immediate plans to adjust borrowing costs. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that Governing Council members broadly agree that slowing wage growth will help sustainably stabilize inflation at target levels.

However, concerns persist. Irish Central Bank Governor Gabriel Makhlouf cautioned earlier this week that despite "good progress" in price control, it is premature to declare inflation "fully tamed" given persistent rapid increases in services and food prices.

Some worry that factors such as a stronger euro, economic headwinds, and delays in the EU carbon pricing mechanism (which was expected to push prices higher) could keep inflation below target for an extended period. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos downplayed these concerns, emphasizing that current borrowing costs are at "appropriate levels."

France has maintained inflation around 1% for most of the year, supported by low energy costs. November data showed declines in communication service prices and a further drop in manufactured goods prices. Meanwhile, the country faces political turmoil, with government instability raising uncertainty over future tax and spending policies, leading households to increase savings and dampen consumption.

Separate data released on Friday showed French consumer spending rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, slightly above the 0.3% forecast. France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies confirmed third-quarter GDP growth of 0.5%.

In Spain, the National Statistics Institute attributed the inflation slowdown mainly to falling electricity prices, though the rate has remained at or above 3% for three consecutive months.

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