Ta Ming Securities has released a research report assigning a 12-month target price of HK$10 to GD-HKGBA HLDGS (01396). This valuation corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 30 times by the end of 2026, aligning it with the median valuation of comparable assets. When further considering the asset's scarcity, adjustments for liquidity premiums, and development flexibility, the potential for valuation re-rating remains substantial. The firm has issued a "Buy" rating and identifies GD-HKGBA HLDGS as one of its top picks within the Chinese AI sector.
The core arguments from Ta Ming Securities are as follows:
The timeline for realizing value from AI assets is clear; following a structural consolidation phase, the company is expected to enter a stage driven by "order fulfillment and profit release," for which the market has not yet fully priced in the potential. After announcing the acquisition of Tiandun Data on October 23, 2025, GD-HKGBA HLDGS completed a substantive transformation from a real estate model to a platform centered on scarce AI computing infrastructure assets. A series of capital moves in 2025 not only helped the company clear real estate-related debt and streamline its balance sheet but also integrated an AI computing asset characterized by a multi-billion yuan order backlog, rapid delivery capabilities, and a technologically closed-loop platform. While the market had previously adopted a wait-and-see attitude towards its "transition flexibility," the brokerage believes that post-transaction, the company will quickly enter a phase of delivering on its performance, with catalysts expected to materialize across at least three dimensions: the pace of order fulfillment, validation of delivery capacity, and the restructuring of its financial framework.
Although the company's share price has rebounded significantly from its lows in 2025, the current market valuation primarily reflects the narrative of real estate debt resolution and asset injection. The re-rating of Tiandun Data's asset quality and growth potential is still in its early stages. Currently, GD-HKGBA HLDGS shares trade around HK$6.0, giving it a total market capitalization of approximately HK$6.9 billion. Tiandun Data's projected net profit for 2025/2026 is approximately RMB 203 million/RMB 440 million, implying a forward 2026 P/E ratio of about 14 times. This places the valuation at the lower end of the spectrum for AI infrastructure assets in both the Chinese and US markets.
Furthermore, the company announced on January 30, 2026, that it had secured a RMB 800 million strategic investment from Shenzhen Futian Capital Operation Group. In December 2025, a fund under China Merchants Group subscribed to a HK$108 million placement following the asset injection, with a discount rate of less than 6%, which has begun to demonstrate government-backed capital's recognition of the company's value.
Tiandun Data is one of the earliest domestic intelligent computing service providers capable of deploying 10,000-card clusters with delivery timelines measured in hundreds of days, meeting diverse needs such as large model training and low-latency inference. Its client base is concentrated among leading large model enterprises with strong, inelastic computing expenditure, possessing both the willingness and capability for sustained procurement. Total long-term procurement demand is estimated to reach a scale of hundreds of billions of yuan, providing clear visibility for revenue growth. The brokerage estimates the company's billed computing service order backlog for 2025 exceeds RMB 15 billion, corresponding to an expected annual revenue of RMB 2 billion, projected to increase to RMB 4.3 billion in 2026.
GD-HKGBA HLDGS represents one of the purest plays on AIDC (AI Data Center) in the domestic market, highlighting its scarcity. Most intelligent computing concept stocks in the Hong Kong and A-share markets are traditional IDC providers transitioning towards AIDC. Compared to companies still in the construction phase with low AIDC billing contribution, Tiandun Data is already in a mature operational stage. It is one of the few domestic companies that can be directly compared to US-listed AIDC peers like Coreweave. Its business attributes, customer resource endowment, and leading delivery capabilities should command a scarcity premium.
Post-restructuring, the company's asset structure has been optimized, and its financial burden cleared, providing a foundation for valuation re-rating. Following the merger, interest-bearing debt was reduced to RMB 420 million, with a gearing ratio of just 7.2%, reaching a historical low. This makes it one of the very few stocks in Hong Kong that combines an "AI" focus with a resolved real estate restructuring background, laying the groundwork for the next phase of overseas expansion, platform evolution, and deeper customer collaboration. The company's board proposed a name change to "GD-HKGBA Intelligent Computing Technology" on March 3, 2026, further refining its intelligent computing focus. It is believed that as the company's AI performance materializes, the valuation reassessment will continue to be reflected.