As Andy Burnham prepares to succeed Keir Starmer as the UK's Prime Minister, the latest opinion poll indicates that the ruling Labour Party is poised to win the most seats in a general election.

According to a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll commissioned by communications consultancy PLMR from Electoral Calculus, if an election were held now, Labour would secure 217 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons.

While this falls short of an absolute majority, Labour's seat count would still lead those of the Conservative Party, projected to win 151 seats, and the Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage, projected to win 127 seats.

This marks a significant reversal from the situation in April, when election forecaster Electoral Calculus ranked Labour's seat count in third place, far behind both Reform UK and the Conservatives.

Labour Leads in Latest Election Forecast

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation in June. As the only eligible candidate within the Labour Party, Andy Burnham is almost certain to succeed him as party leader and become Prime Minister, a position the media has dubbed "Prime Minister-in-waiting."

The next general election must be held by August 2029 at the latest.

Public records show that Burnham, known as the "King of the North," served as Mayor of Greater Manchester from 2017 to 2026. During his tenure, he pushed for the public ownership of the bus system and established the "Bee Network," contributing to regional economic growth that was twice the UK's national average.

His long-standing roots in northern England are seen as key to potentially winning back support for Labour in its traditional northern, working-class strongholds.

"While the data still suggests a hung parliament is the most likely outcome again, the final result of the next election remains highly uncertain," said Kevin Craig, founder of leading public affairs and communications consultancy PLMR, in a statement.

"Andy Burnham has clearly injected new energy into Labour, but the challenge now is to translate that optimism into tangible progress."

A hung parliament refers to a situation in a parliamentary democracy where no single party or coalition secures an absolute majority (typically more than half) of seats in the lower house.

The poll also highlights turmoil within the UK's right-wing political landscape. Support for Reform UK has dipped in polls as Farage's finances come under scrutiny.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced his resignation from his parliamentary seat on Tuesday, accusing the British "establishment" of trying to defeat him with "dirty tricks." He vowed to stand in the subsequent by-election to let voters "judge" his actions.

Starmer's resignation following a poor showing in May's local elections prompted Burnham to enter the race and win a seat in the House of Commons.

The Labour leadership nomination process officially begins on Thursday and concludes a week later. If no other challengers emerge, Burnham is expected to become Prime Minister on July 20.

This poll was conducted between June 23 and 30 with a sample size exceeding 5,500 people.

The MRP technique aims to provide a more granular election forecast than standard polls by using a larger sample size and leveraging voters' demographic characteristics to infer results in individual constituencies.

The Electoral Calculus findings assume a certain level of "tactical voting," where supporters of one party switch their vote to another to prevent a third candidate from winning.

The results show both Labour and the Conservatives benefited from this tactic, with their projected seats increasing from 195 and 124 to 217 and 151, respectively.

Reform UK emerged as the loser, with its projected seat count falling from 166 to 127.

The latest poll projects the Liberal Democrats to secure 72 seats, ranking fourth; the Green Party to win 30 seats; and the Scottish National Party (SNP) to win 28 seats.

In terms of vote share, Labour is projected to receive 22%, tied with Reform UK, while the Conservatives are projected to receive 20%.

This represents a dramatic shift compared to an MRP poll conducted by Electoral Calculus in January. That poll showed Labour winning just 41 seats, ranking sixth, while Reform UK secured an absolute majority with 335 seats, the Conservatives won 92 seats, and the Liberal Democrats won 60 seats.