The valuation gap for AI company IPOs is widening.

According to a September 30 report by tech media outlet The Information, in venture capital and private markets, some investment banks discussed giving Anthropic a valuation of about $2 trillion during early communications. But in the public market, two large investment institutions believe a more appropriate valuation should be close to $1.5 trillion. Silicon Valley's venture capital circles are still chasing the upside of AI assets, while Wall Street's public market is more focused on cash flow, financing costs, and downside scenarios.

Anthropic is expected to need several more weeks before launching a formal IPO roadshow. The report said the AI company was originally seen by the market as one of the most closely watched listings of the year, but stock market volatility has begun to affect investors' pricing attitudes toward large tech IPOs.

Between $2 Trillion and $1.5 Trillion, There Are Two Sets of Pricing Logic

Lead Edge Capital public market portfolio manager Evan Skorpen told The Information that venture capital institutions usually think: "How much could this company be worth in the most optimistic scenario?"

He said that under this mindset, "there are a large number of exciting data points in the market."

But public market investors weigh things differently. Skorpen said: "Public market investors cannot only consider what might go well, because we have to hold the stock every day. Public market investors think more about what could go wrong."

He summarized the divide this way: Silicon Valley investors sit on Sand Hill Road betting on the future, while Wall Street investors watch the share price every day and consider risk.

According to reports, Anthropic has committed to purchasing at least 14.8 gigawatts of computing capacity. These agreements could cost more than $500 billion over the next decade. Draft IPO prospectus data for Anthropic disclosed by Reuters this week also once again drew investor attention to its financial commitments and risk exposure.

AllianceBernstein chief investment officer for small- and mid-cap growth stocks Samantha Lau said: "Any company going public now must be reasonably priced, but I have not yet seen that."

She said: "The only way to open the market is to be more conservative."

Returns on AI Investment Become the Core Question in the Public Market

Leading AI companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to continue raising funds even after completing IPOs, in order to cover data center, chip, and computing expenses.

Lau said she is optimistic about the AI agent software capabilities demonstrated by tech companies and also recognizes that these capabilities may bring returns on data center and chip investment. But she also pointed out that rising interest rates will push up corporate borrowing costs, and investment institutions also need to see deliverable returns.

"The question is, before reaching the final ideal state, who pays for this?" she said.

Anthropic also faces the variable of intensifying competition.

The report said OpenAI's latest model has gained traction with enterprise customers, while the company is in preliminary talks for a pre-IPO financing round of about $30 billion. If the deal moves forward, OpenAI and Anthropic may compete for some of the same sources of funding.

Small and Mid-Sized AI and Data Center IPOs Are Feeling the Pressure First

Caution over valuations and financing has already affected a group of companies that had planned to list recently.

Smart ring company Oura suddenly postponed its IPO on Tuesday, having been scheduled to set its final issue price the next day. People familiar with the matter said investors believed the company's valuation ask was too high.

SoftBank-backed SB Energy has also not yet launched IPO marketing. The company is building a large facility in Ohio for OpenAI. People familiar with the matter said investment banks discussed a valuation of about $60 billion, but some IPO investors currently find that price difficult to accept, and some of them are also worried about its revenue dependence on OpenAI.

Market scrutiny of data center companies is also increasing.

According to reports, London "neocloud" company Nscale, which plans to list, and private equity-owned data center developer Switch both face investor concerns about high debt and future financing needs. Companies such as CyrusOne and Silver Lake-held Vantage Data Center are also expected to seek IPO financing early next year.

A veteran IPO investor said: "We need situations like this to remind investment banks and private equity sponsors: we are not price takers."

The Private Market Is Still Trading at High Prices

In contrast to caution in the public market, investment enthusiasm for AI companies in the venture capital market has not cooled noticeably.

The developer of AI consumer assistant Instinct announced this week that it raised $1 billion at a $10 billion valuation just one year after founding. Its investors include Sequoia Capital, Benchmark, and Coatue.

But inside the private market, vigilance over overheated valuations has also begun to emerge.

Pat Grady, one of Sequoia Capital's leaders, said last week in public presentation materials released to limited partners that venture investors generally believe AI companies' capabilities are improving very quickly and have reached the still widely debated threshold of "artificial general intelligence."

However, he also pointed out: "Valuations are completely crazy."

Grady said some startups, shortly after completing one financing round, quickly raise their next round at a significantly higher valuation, "which is a typical sign of a bubble."

SpaceX's Gains May Still Provide Support for Large IPOs

Large IPOs are not without supporting factors.

SpaceX raised nearly $86 billion in June this year in the largest IPO in history. Since then, its share price has risen about 10%, corresponding to a valuation of about $2 trillion, outperforming the broader market.

This return has benefited investors who subscribed and also provided funds for early investors such as Founders Fund, Valor Equity Partners, and Sequoia Capital to continue investing in the AI sector.

For Anthropic, some large mutual funds had already held its shares at lower prices during the private stage, which may make them more tolerant of IPO pricing. Tech companies such as Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon, as well as existing investors, may also continue to provide funding support.

Ashley MacNeill, head of equity capital markets strategy at Vista Equity Partners, said high valuations in the private market "do not seem to have fully transmitted to the public market."

She said: "Historically we have experienced moments like this, and we will again. It is just especially obvious now because there are these mega IPOs in the market."