JPMorgan has released a research report stating that China's wind power sector has experienced a significant pullback due to weak earnings and slowing onshore demand growth. The bank has lowered its onshore installation forecasts and expects even more modest growth through fiscal year 2030. However, it maintains a positive outlook on offshore wind and export-related opportunities, driven by stronger policy support, a recovering project pipeline, and the rising global competitiveness of Chinese suppliers.
The bank now expects onshore wind installations to stabilize at approximately 90 gigawatts per year through 2030. On the offshore wind front, as project execution improves and the development pipeline converts into installed capacity, installations are expected to gradually recover from roughly 7 gigawatts in fiscal year 2026 and 9 gigawatts in fiscal year 2027 to approximately 11 to 13 gigawatts annually during fiscal years 2028 to 2030.
On the stock side, within the offshore wind segment, the bank prefers Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co., Ltd. (603606.SH), benefiting from an improved offshore demand outlook and high industry entry barriers. On the export theme, the bank favors Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (02208) and Dajin Heavy Industry Corporation (01081), expecting both to continue expanding their overseas market share, supported by the strengthening competitiveness of China's wind power supply chain.
The bank also upgraded Mingyang Smart Energy Group Co., Ltd. (601615.SH) and China Datang Corporation Renewable Power Co., Limited (01798) to "Neutral" and "Overweight" respectively. The target price for China Datang Corporation Renewable Power Co., Limited was raised from HK$1.25 to HK$1.4, while the target price for Mingyang Smart Energy Group Co., Ltd. was raised from RMB10 to RMB13.