The world's largest biopharmaceutical company, Eli Lilly , will release its third quarter 2025 earnings report before the U.S. stock market opens on October 30.

Market Forecast

According to data from Tiger Trade APP, the company's third quarter revenue is expected to be $16.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.02%; adjusted EPS is projected to be $5.9, a year-on-year increase of 400%.

The main business highlight is the increase in the proportion of prescriptions for U.S. obesity treatment. Reports indicate that Zepbound's share of new prescriptions in the U.S. has surpassed competitors and remains at over half. Meanwhile, Mounjaro continues to grow in the diabetes market. The GLP-1 suite remains the existing business with the greatest growth potential. Media and research reports mention that Zepbound's full-year sales potential exceeds $11 billion, with the third quarter focusing on consolidation of the U.S. share and high year-on-year growth brought by international volume expansion.

Previous Quarter Review

In the second quarter of 2025, Eli Lilly's revenue was $15.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%; the full-year revenue guidance was raised to $60 billion to $62 billion; EPS guidance was raised to $20.85 to $22.10. Second quarter Zepbound weight loss drug revenue was $3.38 billion, a 172% year-on-year increase, and was expected to be $3.07 billion; Mounjaro diabetes drug revenue was $5.2 billion, a 68% year-on-year increase.

On the business level, the proportion of GLP-1 continues to increase, with the U.S. market prescription share expanding and the international market accelerating. The main business highlights are focused on the volume expansion of obesity and diabetes dual channels. Sell-side research positively evaluated the year-on-year growth of the second quarter and included it in the third quarter model assumptions.

Outlook for the Current Quarter

Capacity Release and Inventory Rhythm: Ensuring Supply is Core

The key variable for Q3 is the ramp-up of new production lines in North Carolina and Indiana and the normalization of inventory rhythms. In February, the company updated to clearly state that multiple production lines will come online from the first half of the year to mid-year to match bulk patient supply capabilities. Analysts have repeatedly emphasized that Q3 will observe if the supply guarantee and distributor restocks advance as scheduled. Historical inventory fluctuations have twice affected quarterly performance (media mentioned wholesaler restocks falling short of expectations), meaning the Q3 prescription trend and shipment rhythm will depend on capacity fulfillment and channel behavior stability.

If inventory returns to the company's planned range, sales and revenue rhythms will more closely align with genuine prescription demand; if restocks remain cautious, attention must be paid to the direct sales channel and the extent of prescription depth expansion to counteract this. On the supply side, management has invested substantial capital expenditures in the first half to expand GLP-1 capacity. As a result, sell-side models have increased Q3 shipment visibility, while also noting that yield and switching losses during the ramp-up period will structurally disturb gross margins.

Prescription Share and Commercial Promotion: Consolidation in the U.S., Advancement Internationally

Reports indicate that Zepbound's new prescription market share in the U.S. has surpassed competitors and sustained over 50%, supported continually since the company began advertising in November last year. Strategy observation points for Q3 include how to convert clinical data advantages (media reported Zepbound's weight loss effect is superior to Wegovy) into broader grassroots physician prescriptions and family doctor adoption. Experience shows these promotions can increase prescription penetration depth, driving single-quarter prescription growth. Internationally, research reports generally include international expansion into the second half of 25 models. Q3 will see the initial curve of expansion following the acceleration of opening up in some markets, but monitoring the impact of payment and access differences across countries on price and prescription rhythms is necessary.

Insurance Coverage and Indication Expansion: Payment Paths Determine Increment

Progress in insurance coverage is another critical observation point for Q3. Media and research previews mentioned that as coverage expands to scenarios such as sleep apnea, payment paths for elderly patient groups will open, and subsequent approvals for indications like heart failure are expected to further broaden coverage. For Q3, attention needs to be on whether reimbursement details for obesity and related comorbidities have been implemented in U.S. insurance and commercial insurance, and whether prescription compliance and treatment process optimization in hospital and specialty settings are accelerating.

Improved payments will increase the proportion of continuous medication patients, raising the "quality" of quarterly income, and help reduce promotion expense intensity. Simultaneously, policy risks are rising. Since May, pricing policy signals and increased government attention to GLP-1 prices may drive faster commercial negotiations; Q3 strategies need to balance price and accessibility to maintain share and growth trajectory sustainability.

New Product Launch and Expense Structure: Balancing Kisunla Investment and Profit

The advancement of Alzheimer's drug Kisunla's launch is a core factor affecting the expense structure in Q3. Sell-side and media previews unanimously pointed out that expenses will increase due to new product launches, leading to marketing, access, and clinical follow-up investment growth, creating phase pressure on gross and net margins. Management previously clarified that this new product will suppress profit margins in the near term but will form a diversified income structure in the medium to long term.

Q3 should focus on Kisunla's prescription growth, healthcare negotiation points, and early indicators of patient adherence; if prescription starts exceed the model assumptions, marginal effects on expenses are expected to diminish in subsequent quarters, and profit margins will return to a GLP-1 scale effect-led improvement trajectory.

Pipeline and Oral Track: Timing Window for Orforglipron

Research previews mentioned that subsequent reads of the oral obesity drug orforglipron will be the future pipeline's competitive focus. Oral dosage forms have greater flexibility in manufacturing expansion and global distribution. Q3 market discussions will focus on manufacturing scalability, international launch paths, and combination strategies with injectables. If the company gains a first-mover advantage in the oral track, the GLP-1 landscape will continue to expand, providing higher accessibility and lower unit customer acquisition costs. Investors in Q3 will seek communication from management on oral drug manufacturing, registration rhythm, and commercialization cost outlines to preset volume assumptions for around 2026 in models.

Policy and Price Environment: Risks and Opportunities

Since May, policy concerns about GLP-1 prices have increased. Media reports indicated government pushes for drug prices closer to levels in other developed countries, and direct selling prices have shown enterprise-level price cuts. For Q3, uncertainties and expectation differences in price negotiations will increase stock price volatility, but from a fundamental standpoint, price optimization combined with broader coverage is expected to increase medication penetration and prescription durability, creating an income stabilizer under volume-price trade-offs.

The company's communication strategy with regulators is a key execution point during this period. If more reasonable commercial terms can be exchanged for faster access and expanded coverage, the quarterly path after Q3 will be more controllable.

Analyst Views

Multiple media and research institutions in the early preview in October maintained a positive attitude towards Eli Lilly extending its strong GLP-1 performance in the third quarter, pointing out that Zepbound's prescription share in the U.S. has surpassed competitors and sustained over 50%, and Mounjaro continues to grow in the diabetes field. Capacity release and insurance coverage are the two main drivers for continuing to improve income and EPS.

Multiple sell-side institutions maintained or raised their target prices after Q2, with a structure of "Buy/Hold" and "Neutral" views. Differences concentrated on valuation and balancing short-term profit margins; some institutions emphasized new product launch investment would suppress gross margins in the short term but would not change the mainline of double-digit growth for the year.

Research reports generally summarized Q3 risk points as: yield and inventory rhythm of capacity ramp-up, uncertainty in price negotiations, and phase increase in expense rate due to new product launches; corresponding positive factors include increased prescription share, international market promotion, and more optimized product structure supporting mid-term gross margins.

Regarding the pipeline, research reports saw subsequent reads of orforglipron as key catalysts for the next two years; if the oral track forms a first-mover advantage, the international commercialization speed and cost structure are expected to be superior to the injectable path.

Summary

Eli Lilly's Q3 fundamental mainline is clear: the GLP-1 combination continues to be the core engine of volume and profit, solidifying income quality with prescription share and international advancement. The advancement of Kisunla's launch will increase expenses and suppress profit margins in the short term but is expected to bring a more stable and diversified structure from a lifecycle perspective. The rhythm of capacity and inventory will determine the "beat" of Q3 numbers, and the uncertainty of the policy and price environment needs better access and coverage to achieve broader patient penetration.

In the mainstream framework of analysts, Q3 observation points focus on ensuring supply delivery, insurance coverage progress, and marginal changes in new product investment. If these variables improve favorably, the double-digit growth path implied in the full-year guidance will be more achievable.

This content is generated based on Tiger AI data and is for reference only.