Gulf oil producers diversify export routes, triggering a sharp surge in tanker demand

Deep News
08/20

Persistent attacks on shipping vessels have not halted crude exports from Middle East producers, who continue to find ways to move oil to global markets. This has driven a surge in demand for tankers to transport crude out of the Gulf region, pushing vessel prices to historic highs.

According to shipbroker Braemar, during the last quarter, prices for both newbuilds and well-maintained second-hand vessels in the largest tanker class exceeded $130 million, the highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, one-year charter rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) also reached record peaks.

A key driver of these price increases comes from oil-exporting nations themselves: many are seeking to build their own fleets to secure crude export capacity, creating particularly strong demand for immediately available second-hand vessels and charter arrangements.

David Hollander, head of ship sales at Braemar, noted that producers want greater control over their export operations. "For some Middle East exporters, having actual control over assets is equally critical," he said.

Producers without their own tanker fleets, such as Iraq, are offering steeper discounts than usual to persuade buyers to accept the risk of transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

In recent weeks, Iran has intensified attacks on vessels and energy infrastructure, while negotiations between the US and Iran over reopening the strait and reaching a comprehensive peace agreement have stalled.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Kuwait Petroleum Company have established a transshipment model: crude is moved from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz and handed over to waiting tankers on the other side, which then carry the cargo to destination countries.

Abdulkarim Al Masabi, CEO of ADNOC Logistics & Services, the shipping subsidiary of the oil group, said the company plans to "invest heavily in second-hand vessels to provide shipping capacity support for ADNOC group companies."

He told analysts this month that the group already relies on ADNOC Logistics & Services vessels to transit this maritime chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply typically flows.

In August, ADNOC spent $1.3 billion to purchase six VLCCs and five of the largest class of LNG carriers, with all vessels to be immediately deployed in group operations.

Thanks to its own fleet, ADNOC has been able to sustain crude exports despite an increase in attacks on its vessels. Sources say that during the early phase of the conflict, ADNOC ships faced an Iranian attack on average every 10 days, but in recent weeks attacks have escalated to nearly daily.

Shipbrokers indicate that growing interest in tankers from other producers is further pushing up vessel prices, although formal transactions have not yet been completed.

According to pricing agency Argus, Saudi Aramco recently supplied certain Asian customers with crude grades that can only be exported via the strait, suggesting Saudi Arabia may join the ranks of producers shipping oil through this chokepoint.

Saudi shipping company Bahri said earlier this month that its fleet has reached a record 107 vessels; brokers suggest the kingdom will need to acquire more ships.

Saudi Aramco declined to comment on crude supply arrangements to Asian customers and fleet expansion needs.

Shipbrokers say that vessels quickly deployed to Gulf operations can capture the discounts offered by producers, boosting vessel profitability and attracting other potential ship buyers.

Clarksons, a shipbroker, reports that spot market earnings for the largest tankers jumped 20% this week, while risk appetite among shipowners has diverged, leading to an increasingly fragmented fleet landscape.

The firm noted: "High-risk routes command significantly higher compensation, with Red Sea-China routes earning around $318,000 per day, while Hormuz-to-China routes exceed $550,000 per day."

Shipping data provider Vortexa shows that only 29 tankers handle more than 50% of the transport volume on routes in and out of the Strait of Hormuz.

South Korean tanker operator Sinokor Merchant Marine handles most of the transshipment business within the strait, having spent $5.9 billion on a major tanker buying spree just before the conflict erupted.

Claire Jungman, head of marine risk and intelligence at Vortexa, said: "Crude exports from the Gulf continue, but the operational architecture supporting trade flows has changed. The highest-risk segments of voyages are increasingly concentrated on a small group of vessels repeatedly plying these routes."

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