On March 2nd, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January rose across the board, exceeding expectations and highlighting persistent inflationary pressures. This unexpected increase was primarily driven by a sharp surge in service costs. Both the month-on-month and year-on-year increases for core PPI, which excludes food and energy, significantly surpassed market forecasts, registering the fastest growth rate in nearly a year. Data released on the 27th by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed: US Core PPI year-on-year at 3.6%, against an expectation of 3.0%, with a previous reading of 3.3%. US PPI month-on-month at 0.5%, against an expectation of 0.3%, matching the previous reading of 0.5%. US Core PPI month-on-month at 0.8%, against an expectation of 0.3%, with a previous reading of 0.7%. US PPI year-on-year at 2.9%, against an expectation of 2.6%, with a previous reading of 3.0%. The strong rise in producer prices has prompted a market reassessment of the inflation trajectory. Analysis suggests that the stronger-than-expected PPI performance could also exert upward pressure on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Persistently high inflation data may further complicate the Fed's future monetary policy choices, keeping investors cautious about near-term market direction.

Additionally, data released on Friday by Germany's Federal Statistical Office showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year-on-year in February, down 0.1 percentage points from the 2.1% recorded in January. It is noteworthy that economists surveyed had generally forecast the inflation rate to remain stable, making this data unexpectedly lower than market expectations. Although the German economy is showing signs of recovery after years of weakness, the Bundesbank still considers its growth momentum to be only "weak." Fiscal stimulus measures are expected to show more pronounced effects starting in the spring, boosting economic growth to at least 1% this year and helping to stabilize inflation around the 2% target level. European Central Bank officials have repeatedly expressed satisfaction with the current level of borrowing costs, which have remained unchanged since last June, as the inflation rate has hovered near the 2% target. Economists widely predict that no interest rate adjustments will occur until at least the end of 2027, even though the current inflation rate remains below the central bank's target range.

Key data to watch today includes Germany's January Real Retail Sales month-on-month, the Eurozone's February SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, the UK's February SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, the US January Durable Goods Orders month-on-month revision, the US February SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, and the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI.

**Dollar Index** The Dollar Index experienced choppy trading on Friday, closing slightly lower for the day. Profit-taking and technical selling pressure near the 98.00 level contributed to the downward pressure, alongside investor concerns regarding uncertain US tariff policies. However, generally positive US economic data released during the session limited the extent of the pullback. In early Asian trading, the Dollar Index edged higher due to increased geopolitical tensions, with the spot rate currently trading around 97.80. Resistance is seen near 98.30 today, with support around 97.30.

**EUR/USD** The Euro traded higher on Friday, closing with modest gains. The spot rate is currently trading around 1.1790. The primary support for the Euro's gain came from a softening US Dollar, which was pressured by factors including investor concerns over US tariff uncertainty. However, diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and generally weak economic data from the Eurozone during the session limited the pair's upward momentum. Resistance is seen near 1.1900 today, with support around 1.1700.

**GBP/USD** The British Pound consolidated on Friday, closing marginally higher. Short-covering provided some support, and the retreat in the Dollar Index was also a key factor helping the Pound stabilize. Nevertheless, expectations for Bank of England rate cuts and concerns over UK political uncertainty capped the pair's rebound. In early Asian trading, the Pound opened lower, gapping down due to increased geopolitical tensions, with the spot rate currently trading around 1.3450. Resistance is seen near 1.3550 today, with support around 1.3350.