On June 17, Chalco (02600.HK) fell 3.32% in regular trading, trading at HK$8.73/share, with turnover of HK$397 million.

On the news front, Goldman Sachs recently published a research report downgrading Chalco from Neutral to Sell, slashing its 12-month target price from HK$12.5 to HK$7.5. The bank cited accelerating aluminum supply growth both in China and overseas, projecting domestic capacity to exceed 48 million tons by year-end. Goldman Sachs estimates the SHFE spread will collapse from RMB 8,879/ton in 1H to RMB 4,250/ton in 2027, implying a 50% decline in recurring profit. Separately, Citigroup also cut its target price from HK$8.89 to HK$7.6, lowering net profit forecasts for the current and next fiscal year by 8% and 5% respectively.

The stock has been under sustained selling pressure since its formal inclusion in the Hang Seng Index took effect on June 8, when shares plunged 8%, displaying a classic buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact pattern with persistent institutional net outflows. The aluminum sector traded broadly lower, with China Hongqiao down 3.22%, Nanshan Aluminium International down 2.45%, Chuangxin Industrial down 1.96%, and Rusal down 1.1%.

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