Tianfeng Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that over 2.6 billion people globally were affected by overweight/obesity in 2020, with the weight loss market continuing to expand as Eli Lilly (LLY.US) and Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) compete for dominance. GLP-1 represents a crucial target in the current weight loss field, with MNCs having comprehensive pipeline layouts in weight loss research, where oral administration may become the next generation focus. Against the backdrop of oral GLP-1 pipeline data consistently falling short of expectations, domestic drugs are expected to achieve certain BD results by leveraging potentially favorable data from structural modifications and rapid clinical advancement efficiency.

**Weight Loss Market Scale Growing Rapidly, Listed Products from Lilly & Novo Nordisk Continue Sales Expansion**

Over 2.6 billion people globally were affected by overweight/obesity in 2020. According to the "World Obesity Atlas 2023 Report" predictions, over 4 billion people may be affected by 2035. The GLP-1 receptor agonist market has become the focus in diabetes and obesity treatment fields. Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) has maintained market dominance with semaglutide, while Eli Lilly's (LLY.US) tirzepatide sales have grown rapidly.

**Oral Administration Evolution Expected to Accelerate Weight Loss Market Growth, Mainstream Pipeline Divided into Small Molecules & Peptides**

Currently approved GLP-1 products for weight loss indications are all administered via injection. Regarding compliance, patients tend to prefer non-injection medication methods. The globally approved oral GLP-1 drug semaglutide (Rybelsus) is indicated for type 2 diabetes. On May 2, 2025, Novo Nordisk announced that the marketing application for oral weight loss indication semaglutide (Wegovy, 25mg) has been accepted by the FDA, marking the first oral peptide GLP-1 weight loss drug submitted for approval globally.

From the pipeline perspective, small molecules and peptides represent mainstream drug types, with small molecule pipelines being numerous but no approved products yet available.

**Oral Administration R&D Path Challenging, Plateau Period & Safety May Be Success Keys**

Since 2025, leading oral GLP-1 companies including Lilly, Pfizer, and Viking have experienced significant stock price impacts due to clinical data falling short of expectations. Pfizer and Viking's molecular safety performance was below expectations, while Lilly's oral drug clinical data disappointed. Currently, oral GLP-1 weight loss plateau periods show obvious safety concerns, with rapid short-term onset but long-term weight loss data below expectations. Safety issues represent one of the major challenges facing oral GLP-1.

**Disappointing Data Expected to Accelerate Domestic Molecular BD Landing**

From BD execution perspective, MNCs place significant emphasis on pipeline layouts in their core areas, therefore BD landing speed and success rates generally improve when core pipeline data changes occur. For example, the March 2025 authorization agreement between UNITED LAB and Novo Nordisk regarding UBT251 may be related to Novo Nordisk's CagriSema data falling short of expectations.

Against the backdrop of oral GLP-1 pipeline data consistently disappointing, domestic drugs are expected to achieve certain BD results by leveraging potentially favorable data from structural modifications and rapid clinical advancement efficiency.

**Investment Recommendations:** 1) Lilly structure: UNITED LAB (03933), INNOVENT BIO (01801), Ascletis Pharma-B (01672) 2) Pfizer structure: HENGRUI PHARMA (600276.SH, 01276), Huadong Medicine (000963.SZ), Sinocare (002294.SZ)

**Risk Warning** Macroeconomic environment risks, drug clinical development risks, domestic market competition risks, overseas market sales underperformance risks, third-party data deviation risks.