Overnight US Markets: Dow and S&P 500 Hit Fresh Records as Major Indices Post Weekly Gains

Stock News
10/04

On Friday, the three major US indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. All three major US stock indices recorded gains for the week, with the Dow rising 1.1%, the Nasdaq gaining 1.32%, and the S&P 500 advancing 1.09%. During Friday's session, the Dow reached an intraday high of 47,049.64 points, the S&P 500 hit 6,750.87 points, and the Nasdaq touched 22,925.43 points, all setting new intraday records.

**US Markets** At the close, the Dow gained 238.56 points or 0.51% to finish at 46,758.28 points; the Nasdaq fell 63.54 points or 0.28% to 22,780.51 points; and the S&P 500 edged up 0.44 points or 0.01% to 6,715.79 points.

USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) surged 14.3%, Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE.US) climbed 6.7%, Tesla (TSLA.US) declined 1.4%, Ford Motor (F.US) advanced 3.6%, AMD (AMD.US) dropped approximately 3%, and Intel (INTC.US) fell 1.26%.

**European Markets** Germany's DAX 30 fell 50.90 points or 0.21% to 24,387.69; the UK's FTSE 100 rose 59.32 points or 0.63% to 9,487.05; France's CAC 40 gained 24.91 points or 0.31% to 8,081.54; the Euro Stoxx 50 added 5.44 points or 0.10% to 5,651.25; Spain's IBEX 35 increased 70.70 points or 0.46% to 15,577.50; and Italy's FTSE MIB advanced 166.87 points or 0.39% to 43,245.00.

**Crude Oil** WTI crude futures rose 0.7% to close near $61 per barrel, though posting a 7.4% decline for the week. December Brent crude gained 0.7% to $64.53 per barrel. Trump set a Sunday night deadline for Hamas to accept his proposal, stating earlier that Israel would have his "full support" to destroy Hamas if they reject the agreement.

**Cryptocurrencies** Bitcoin gained 1.5% to $122,419.2, while Ethereum rose over 1% to $4,534.54.

**Precious Metals** Spot gold closed up 0.81% at $3,886.71. HSBC indicated that gold could breach the $4,000/ounce level in the near term due to geopolitical risks, fiscal uncertainties, and threats to Federal Reserve independence. The bank expects the gold rally to continue through 2026, supported by official sector purchases and strong institutional demand for gold as a diversification tool. However, the rally may moderate in the second half of 2026 as the Fed's rate-cutting cycle ends, physical demand weakens, and supply increases.

**Macro News** Historical data shows positive average returns for US stocks one month and three months after government shutdowns. LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist noted that since the mid-1970s, the US has experienced 50 government shutdowns averaging 8 days, with stocks showing positive average returns both one month and three months post-shutdown. He stated: "While government shutdowns add another layer of uncertainty to markets, historically they have been short-lived and thus have minimal economic impact. Investors typically look past budget-related disruptions and focus more on corporate earnings, broader economic trends, and other key macroeconomic factors."

**Goldman Sachs Analysis** Analysis indicates US initial jobless claims rose modestly to 224,000. Goldman's analysis of state unemployment benefit application data shows a slight increase in claims last week, based on data released by states during the federal government shutdown. Economists including Jan Hatzius noted they expect initial claims for the week ending September 27 to rise to approximately 224,000, up from the previously reported 218,000. The bank adjusted available state raw data using pre-announced seasonal factors from the Labor Department. Due to the shutdown, the Labor Department did not release its weekly report Thursday but provided downloadable data for most states. The September employment report scheduled for Friday morning was also delayed.

**Federal Reserve Officials** Fed Governor Milan stated he would adjust his relatively optimistic inflation expectations if housing costs unexpectedly surge significantly. Milan noted that stricter immigration policies and average rent trends are expected to drive housing inflation lower, but emphasized that his current mild inflation forecast would need revision if shocks emerge that push up rents. Milan opposed the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut decision last month, advocating instead for a 50 basis point reduction. He believes the Fed should more aggressively ease policy to bring rates to a "neutral level" that neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity.

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson reiterated concerns Friday that the Fed faces two simultaneous challenges - a softening labor market while inflation remains above target levels. Jefferson expressed that high uncertainty about the outlook persists but expects it to diminish as White House policies are finalized. He stated: "As these policy adjustments are implemented, we'll have more time to assess their economic impact, and I expect overall uncertainty surrounding the US economy to decrease."

New York Fed President Williams emphasized that central banks must prepare for unexpected situations, noting that unpredictable changes are inevitable and banks need strategies to address various scenarios. He stated that previously unconventional strategies like bond purchases are no longer novel but normal parts of the toolkit, while stressing that stable inflation expectations are crucial and cannot be taken for granted.

**Trump Administration News** Republican Senator Bernie Moreno and auto industry executives indicated Trump is considering substantial tariff relief for US auto production, potentially eliminating a significant portion of costs currently borne by major automakers. Moreno stated this sends a signal to global auto companies that final assembly in the US will be rewarded, benefiting Ford, Toyota, Honda, Tesla, and GM. The Commerce Department previously planned import credits equivalent to 3.75% of suggested retail price through April 2026, then 2.5% the following year. Moreno indicated Trump is considering maintaining the 3.75% rate for five years and expanding it to US engine production.

The Treasury Department confirmed Friday it is considering issuing a $1 commemorative coin featuring Trump's image to celebrate America's 250th anniversary next year. The preliminary design includes Trump's profile on one side and Trump with raised fist against an American flag background with "FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT" text on the other.

**Individual Stock News** MicroStrategy's (MSTR.US) Bitcoin holdings market value exceeded nine financial giants including Barclays, equivalent to the GDP of Uruguay, Sri Lanka, and Slovenia. With Bitcoin surpassing $120,000, Michael Saylor reported that MicroStrategy's 640,031 Bitcoin holdings reached a market value peak of $77.4 billion, exceeding the market caps of Bank of New York Mellon, Sberbank, US Bancorp, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, ING Group, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, ANZ Bank, and Lloyds Bank.

Walmart's (WMT.US) fintech subsidiary OnePay will launch cryptocurrency services, planning to introduce crypto trading and custody services in its mobile app later this year in partnership with startup Zerohash. Users will be able to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum. OnePay currently offers credit cards and high-yield savings accounts, ranking fifth among financial apps in the Apple App Store. As part of Walmart's ecosystem reaching 150 million US consumers weekly, this crypto service launch will further enhance its "super app" strategy.

**Analyst Ratings** Wells Fargo raised Ford Motor's (F.US) price target from $8 to $10. Deutsche Bank lowered Procter & Gamble's (PG.US) price target from $177 to $175.

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