UBS has released a research report indicating that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, making the risk-reward profile of Hong Kong conglomerates more sensitive to external influences. The bank assumes that if conflicts in the Middle East persist unresolved through the end of the third quarter this year, with reduced oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the average annual price of Brent crude could reach $132.5 per barrel. UBS has set a target price of HK$67 for CKH HOLDINGS (00001) with a "Buy" rating, while assigning a "Neutral" rating to SWIRE PACIFIC A (00019) with a target price of HK$72.7. The bank estimates that CKH HOLDINGS' net asset value and 2026 earnings could potentially increase by 9% and 66%, respectively, largely due to benefits from rising oil prices for its subsidiary Cenovus Energy. In contrast, SWIRE PACIFIC A's net asset value and 2026 earnings may decline by 19% and 26%, respectively, as its subsidiary CATHAY PAC AIR (00293) faces pressure from higher fuel costs.