Barclays has cautioned that oil prices may climb by as much as 50% before the market returns to equilibrium, citing the recent disruption to a Saudi pipeline as evidence of a persistent, slow-recovery risk to Middle Eastern output.

According to the bank, if the current situation endures, the path to market balance could be preceded by a significant price spike. The warning follows the September 22nd uptick in international crude benchmarks, with Brent and New York futures each gaining roughly 1% to $101.36 and $96.65 per barrel, respectively.

Barclays notes that inventory and consumption data indicate prices are still a considerable distance from the point where supply and demand align. While the current estimated net supply loss from the Middle East stands at 4.7 million barrels per day—far below the 12 to 13 million barrels per day lost at the start of the Iran war—the buffer of available inventories is now substantially smaller.

Consequently, the bank projects Brent crude to average $95 a barrel in the fourth quarter, followed by $90 in the next quarter, then $85, $85, and $80 over the subsequent three quarters.