Shift in Stance: Besant Backs Fed's Wait-and-See Approach Amid War Clouds, Dimming Rate Cut Hopes

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Against the backdrop of rising energy prices and re-emerging inflation pressures due to the Iran conflict, Besant has publicly voiced support for the Federal Reserve's decision to await more data before taking action, doing so twice within two consecutive days.

In a CNBC interview on Wednesday, Besant stated, "I understand if they need to delay rate cuts." This came a day after he expressed a similar view during a media roundtable, saying, "I understand if they prefer to wait for clearer signals."

This marks a departure from Besant's public position over the past year, during which he repeatedly argued that current conditions justified lowering borrowing costs. His recent shift aligns the Treasury's stance more closely with the cautious faction within the Fed.

Besant also noted that once energy costs recede, the Fed would then be "able to take more action" to advance interest rate cuts. This remark suggests he views the delay in rate cuts as temporary rather than a fundamental shift in policy direction.

The immediate context for Besant's change in position is the surge in energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict.

Recent U.S. CPI data for March showed the largest monthly increase in overall inflation since 2022. Although core CPI has not raised significant alarms, another key monthly price indicator, the PCE, has continued to reflect persistent price pressures, further supporting the argument for monetary policy patience.

Besant also pointed out on Wednesday that it may take some time for gasoline prices to decline. This implies that even though oil prices have retreated from recent highs, they remain well above February levels, limiting their near-term impact on curbing inflation.

Besant's comments also coincide with the upcoming leadership transition at the Fed. If Wash is confirmed before the June policy meeting, he will face a delicate situation: it remains uncertain whether a majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be prepared to support restarting rate cuts by then.

If a majority of the FOMC is not yet ready to support rate cuts, Wash will confront a dilemma: either push for cuts in line with long-standing demands from the Trump administration but risk being outvoted, or maintain the current stance. The former scenario would represent a rare instance of a Fed chair being overruled in decades.

Historically, Paul Volcker was overruled in 1986, after nearly seven years as chair, and his dissent was against lowering rates. For Wash, being overruled in his first vote as chair would raise questions about his influence within the institution from the outset of his term.

On Tuesday, Besant told media that Wash could "lead the Fed into its next cycle." This phrasing has been interpreted as suggesting the Trump administration may grant Wash some leeway to wait for data conditions to mature before building consensus within the FOMC for rate cuts. However, Besant did not elaborate explicitly on this point.

Wash himself will have an opportunity to clarify his stance on a potential rate cut timeline during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on April 21.

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