Gold prices found support and bounced back on Thursday, September 4th, as weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP private payroll data helped cool expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting. This partly offset the impact of recent hawkish comments from Fed officials and underpinned bullion's rebound. Short-term technical signals also indicated room for a corrective advance, prompting recommendations to monitor initial support at the $4,400 level, followed by $4,350, while resistance was seen at $4,460, and then $4,500.
During Thursday's European trading session, gold essentially held a sideways range between $4,418 and $4,445. After the U.S. market opened, the metal broke higher, climbing to test the $4,495 area before facing resistance. A pullback found support at $4,457, allowing prices to resume their advance and push toward $4,510, where sellers again emerged. Gold then gave back some gains, settling near $4,470 into the close. On Friday morning, prices dipped to find support at $4,460, rebounded to face resistance at $4,490, and recently traded around $4,470.
Overall, gold held above the $4,400 level and staged a rebound, reaching the targeted $4,500 area, in line with expectations of a bullish bias. A senior analyst at Wolfinance highlighted two primary drivers behind the metal’s rally from its one-month low to a fresh one-week high. First, the disappointing U.S. ADP employment report for the month, which marked the smallest gain of the year, hinted that the labor market may be more fragile than previously thought. This eased concerns about an overheating economy, leading the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to dip slightly from 66% to 62%. Second, Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered a dovish signal, explicitly stating that if upcoming August inflation data confirms price pressures are easing, he would favor holding interest rates steady at the September meeting. Following his comments, the odds of a September hike declined further to 50%, while the U.S. dollar slid to a one-week low, paving the way for further gains in gold.
Looking ahead, the focus for the day is squarely on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the session. A weaker-than-expected print could fuel additional upward momentum for bullion.
On the daily chart, gold has stabilized and rebounded from its one-month low, marking a fresh one-week high and indicating that near-term downside pressure has significantly eased. Key support is now seen at the day's low of $4,460, which coincides with Thursday's daily Bollinger Band middle track; after facing resistance that day, prices pulled back to test this area and held before resuming their rise. Currently, gold is firming above this level ahead of the payrolls data, with additional support at the psychological $4,400 mark, which also aligns with the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle band. On the upside, immediate resistance is at Thursday's high of $4,510, corresponding to the daily 10-day moving average, followed by the $4,570 level, which was the downside breakout point from Friday's sharp decline.
Technical indicators are turning more constructive. The 5-day moving average shows a slight upward tick after a bearish crossover, the MACD histogram's downtrend has clearly slowed, and the KDJ and RSI momentum oscillators have flipped higher from their bearish setups. This suggests that near-term downside pressure is waning and opens the possibility for continued upside corrective action.
Gold market reference for the session: The combination of a weak ADP report and a dovish Fed official's comments has trimmed the probability of a September rate hike from 66% to 50%, pressured the dollar to a one-week low, and created room for a rebound in bullion. For now, gold is trading in a sideways pattern, awaiting direction from the non-farm payrolls data. It is prudent to approach the market with a range-bound mindset, watching support at $4,460, with a downside break targeting $4,400, and monitoring resistance at $4,510, with an upside break opening the door to $4,570.