Silver prices consolidated within a narrow range during the Asian trading session, currently hovering around $74 per ounce. Overall, the market lacks a clear directional bias, with prices moving within a range-bound pattern, although the short-term structure remains weak.
From a fundamental perspective, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation persists. Although the United States and Iran are planning a new round of talks regarding a long-term ceasefire, significant differences remain between the two parties. Iran has pointed out that relevant agreement terms have been violated, particularly concerning the conflict in Lebanon, further eroding market confidence in the prospects for a ceasefire. This uncertainty maintains a cautious market sentiment. While silver, as a safe-haven asset, receives some support from this, it has not generated significant upward momentum.
Simultaneously, changes in the energy market are indirectly impacting silver. Previous disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp rise in oil prices, boosting global inflation expectations and reinforcing market expectations that major central banks will maintain tight monetary policies. Although recent ceasefire news has somewhat alleviated the rise in oil prices, overall inflation levels remain elevated, and the policy environment continues to be restrictive.
From a monetary policy standpoint, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates continue to exert pressure on silver. According to market pricing, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady is currently approximately 76.4%. This expectation implies that real interest rates could remain relatively high, thereby reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like silver. This is one of the key reasons for the persistent pressure on silver prices recently.
Regarding market sentiment, investors are generally inclined towards a wait-and-see approach. On one hand, geopolitical risks remain subject to potential flare-ups; on the other hand, the path of monetary policy is not entirely clear, leaving capital without a strong directional cue. Against this backdrop, silver prices are predominantly exhibiting a range-bound oscillation.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that silver entered a consolidation phase after retreating from higher levels, with overall trends showing signs of weakening. Prices continue to trade below short-term moving averages, indicating that bears are in control. The area around $74.89 currently constitutes key resistance, coinciding with the 20-day moving average. A failure to break above this level decisively would likely keep prices under pressure in the near term. Further resistance above is observed around the $81.13 zone, which marks a previous high.
Looking at momentum indicators, the RSI is in a neutral-to-weak territory (around 46), indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to show weak signals, suggesting limited rebound potential. On the 4-hour chart, prices are moving within a lower-range consolidation pattern, with short-term moving averages arranged in a bearish formation. Unless the price can break above the $75 area, any rebound is likely to be a technical correction.
On the downside, the key psychological support level is the $70.00 mark. A breach below this level could trigger further declines. Further support is located around the $66.70 area, which represents a previous low.
The current price action in silver exhibits a typical weak consolidation pattern. While geopolitical uncertainties provide some support, it is insufficient to offset the pressure exerted by the high-interest-rate environment. As market expectations solidify around the Fed maintaining a restrictive policy stance, silver lacks sustained upward momentum in the short term. Future price direction will depend on two key factors: first, whether the Middle East situation escalates further, and second, changes in the trajectory of US inflation and interest rates. Until then, silver is likely to maintain a weak, oscillating trend.