On April 28, international crude oil markets continued to trade at elevated levels, with WTI crude futures surpassing $96 per barrel and Brent crude reaching a high near $108 during the session. Supply disruptions caused by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to dictate market trends. McGraw Hill noted that the conflict has persisted for over nine weeks, with global production disruptions averaging 7.5 million barrels per day in March. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) April Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that the peak disruption in April would rise further to 9.1 million barrels per day, underscoring the increasingly tight structural supply conditions in the global crude oil market.

Market data shows that the price spread between Brent and WTI widened to an average of $12 per barrel in March, reflecting the asymmetric impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions on international benchmark oil prices. McGraw Hill highlighted that approximately 20% of global oil supplies historically pass through this strategic chokepoint. With the shipping route remaining blocked, this price differential is expected to persist at elevated levels for an extended period. Meanwhile, Iran has submitted a new proposal to the United States, suggesting an extension of the ceasefire and linking the resumption of nuclear talks to the lifting of the blockade. Following the news, Brent crude retreated slightly from its $108 peak to around $106, though the pullback was limited, indicating that the market remains cautious about the diplomatic outlook.

Diplomatic developments continue to be the most significant variable influencing oil price movements. Although Iran’s new proposal briefly boosted optimism, the U.S. has so far maintained its stance of suspending formal negotiations. Market sentiment remains caught between geopolitical risk premiums and ceasefire expectations. Energy traders widely view the Brent-WTI spread as a real-time indicator of supply pressure related to the Strait of Hormuz—a significant narrowing of the spread would signal that the market is beginning to more actively price in the possibility of the strait reopening.

Considering multiple factors, until a concrete diplomatic breakthrough occurs, short-term upside in oil prices will be primarily driven by negotiation dynamics rather than fundamentals. McGraw Hill expects Brent crude to fluctuate within a range of $105 to $110, supported at the lower end by structural supply tightness and capped at the upper end by periodic diplomatic optimism. Even if a ceasefire agreement is eventually reached, restoring global supply flows to normal is expected to take several months. As a result, high oil prices are likely to remain the baseline scenario for the energy market in the second quarter of 2026. Investors are advised to closely monitor diplomatic negotiations and prepare for price volatility driven by geopolitical risks.