New export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points in November, while annual express delivery volume surpassed 180 billion parcels for the first time—recent high-frequency and leading indicators suggest China's economy continues to consolidate its recovery momentum, with sustained vitality. Experts indicate that, against the backdrop of coordinated policy efforts, the annual economic development targets are expected to be achieved smoothly. Looking ahead to next year, fiscal policy may maintain an expansionary stance, with priorities likely focusing on boosting domestic demand and fostering new productive forces.
Multiple indicators highlight the resilience and dynamism of the economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, a leading indicator of economic activity, showed positive signals in November, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating improved business sentiment. The new export orders sub-index climbed 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, reflecting strong foreign trade resilience. Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, noted that despite global economic complexities, China's export environment has stabilized. Meanwhile, consumer goods replacement policies have driven sales exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan in the first ten months of the year, benefiting over 360 million people. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles surged 21.9% year-on-year to 10.15 million units.
Express delivery, a barometer of economic activity, exceeded 180 billion parcels annually for the first time by November 30, with monthly volumes averaging over 16 billion and peaking at 777 million parcels in a single day. The sector's rapid growth underscores robust consumption trends.
Behind this economic vitality lies effective policy coordination. Recent macro policies have balanced short-term stabilization with long-term growth drivers, paving the way for next year's economic start and the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Measures include 500 billion yuan in local government debt quotas to bolster fiscal capacity and expand investment, alongside 500 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments targeting digital economy and AI projects.
On the consumption front, the central bank introduced a 500 billion yuan relending facility in May to support service and elderly care sectors, while fiscal policies such as loan subsidies for personal consumption aim to stimulate demand. Supply-side reforms, including technological upgrades in consumer goods production, further enhance market dynamism.
With the Central Economic Work Conference approaching, experts anticipate 2026 policies to emphasize domestic demand expansion and innovation-driven growth. Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain accommodative, with potential for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts. Efforts to stabilize consumption may focus on service sector upgrades and income redistribution reforms.