On May 14th, international oil prices continued to trade at elevated levels, driven by a combination of geopolitical conflicts and tightening fundamentals. McGraw Hill noted that the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a substantial drawdown of 4.3 million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8th. Concurrently, supported by the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, market concerns over a potential supply-demand gap during the peak summer consumption season have deepened significantly. The overall futures curve is exhibiting a tighter structure in the near term.

Specifically, the magnitude of this crude inventory decline exceeded market expectations. McGraw Hill analysis suggests that supply concerns stemming from the Iran situation prompted some refineries to restock earlier than usual. Coupled with the seasonal strengthening of gasoline consumption, the overall pace of crude oil destocking has accelerated notably. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have led to adjustments in some trade flows. Asian refineries are increasingly seeking crude oil from sources outside the Middle East, indicating emerging signs of a reshaping of global supply chains.

Observing market performance, Brent crude oil is approaching the $110 per barrel mark, while WTI crude oil is also trading above $100. In the short term, market sentiment is noticeably driven by geopolitical events, with daily volatility increasing. Investors are advised to closely monitor weekly inventory data, developments in geopolitical events, and movements from major oil-producing countries' meetings to avoid excessive risk exposure during emotional trading.

Looking ahead, McGraw Hill anticipates that crude oil prices may maintain a pattern of high-level, volatile, and relatively strong performance, given the lack of significant easing in the Iran situation and the approaching peak summer travel season. Investors should rationally view short-term fluctuations and manage risks through measures such as strict stop-loss orders, reasonable position control, and portfolio diversification to avoid unnecessary losses stemming from one-sided chasing of rallies.