Monthly Close Strategy: Gold and Crude Oil Intraday Technical Outlook

Deep News
4小时前

Spot gold experienced a dramatic reversal on Friday, August 28, marking the final trading day of August. The precious metal initially dipped to $4,445.50 per ounce during the session, its lowest point since August 20, before settling at $4,454.23 per ounce, closing the day with a decline exceeding 3%. Early Monday, August 31, gold opened lower and briefly touched a one-and-a-half week low at $4,431.52 per ounce during Asian trading hours. However, dip-buying interest quickly lifted prices back toward the $4,466 level, though the metal has since retreated below the $4,450 mark once again.

This sudden sharp selloff was largely triggered by comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. On the daily chart, gold printed a bearish engulfing candle, with short-term moving averages turning downward, indicating that the previous uptrend has been disrupted. The MACD histogram is showing expanding green bars, and the RSI has fallen into oversold territory, suggesting some technical rebound potential in the near term, though the medium-term bearish structure remains intact. On the four-hour timeframe, gold is consolidating after the sharp decline, with bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war and rebound momentum appearing weak.

If the rebound fails to hold above the $4,440 level, bears are likely to maintain the upper hand. A decisive break below support at $4,395 could open the door for further downside movement. Key levels to watch: resistance at $4,440 and $4,467, with support at $4,361 and $4,310. For longer-term positioning, a pullback to the $4,361/69 zone could present buying opportunities, while rebounds toward $4,440/50 may offer selling entries, targeting moves of 20-50 points. The key pivot point for gold stands at $4,395 per ounce. Please note that these observations represent personal views only and do not constitute investment advice.

WTI crude oil opened noticeably higher during Monday's Asian trading session after closing around $83.40 on Friday, with gains partly trimmed as the latest price hovers near $85.20 per barrel. The uptick follows U.S. military strikes on targets near Larak Island in Iran, which reignited concerns over shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, adding a fresh risk premium to oil prices. U.S. officials indicated the operation was aimed at potential launch sites in the strategic waterway, shifting market focus from general regional tensions to energy transport infrastructure and maritime security risks.

On the daily chart, WTI crude gapped higher in response to weekend geopolitical news, forming a bullish candle with short-term moving averages turning upward. The MACD histogram is expanding positively, and the RSI has climbed into a neutral-to-strong zone, with the larger bullish framework remaining intact. However, the sustainability of geopolitical-driven rallies remains questionable, and selling pressure is likely to increase following the rapid price surge. On the four-hour chart, short-term momentum favors buyers, though prices have moved well above moving averages, suggesting a technical need for a pullback to confirm support levels as market forces alternate and await further fundamental guidance.

Key levels to monitor include resistance at $86.5 and $88.0, with support seen at $84.5 and $83.2. For short-term traders, a dip toward $84.7 ±0.2 could offer buying opportunities, while a rally to $87.3 ±0.2 may present selling chances, targeting moves of 2.0-3.0 per barrel. Futures account opening is available through the Sina cooperative platform, offering safety and convenience. This content is republished from a cooperating media outlet for informational purposes only and does not imply endorsement of views or accuracy. The article serves as a reference and does not constitute investment advice; investors act at their own risk.

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