Farmers are seen planting late rice seedlings in a village in Hunan Province, as captured in recent photographs. China's agricultural and rural development has achieved significant milestones during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with grain output reaching a new level of 1.4 trillion jin. As the nation enters the 15th Five-Year Plan period, work related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers remains a top priority. The recently released "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization" provides a comprehensive blueprint. This series focuses on four key indicators from that plan, analyzing the targets for modernizing agriculture and rural areas over the next five years to envision the future of this vital sector.
The plan sets a target for China's comprehensive grain production capacity to reach approximately 1.45 trillion jin by 2030. This is the first major target listed and is one of only two binding indicators in the document. Achieving this means the nation must increase its comprehensive grain production capacity by about 600 billion jin over the next five years. Why is this a primary, non-negotiable goal? What impact will reaching this target have on food security for over 1.4 billion people?
Enhanced Stability for Food Security
China's per capita grain availability stands at 509 kilograms, significantly above the internationally recognized food security line of 400 kilograms. Over the next five years, the annual average increase in grain production capacity needs to be around 12 billion jin. Recent global warnings about extreme weather events from a new El Niño phenomenon potentially triggering food crises in some regions highlight the worldwide challenge to food security. Experts note that factors like extreme weather and complex international situations have increased uncertainty in global grain markets. The key to meeting this challenge lies in maintaining a stable and robust grain production capacity.
This comprehensive capacity reflects a nation's ability to ensure food security, encompassing resilience against natural disasters, farmland protection, production technology, and policy support. Setting the target at approximately 1.45 trillion jin aims to use the stability of production capacity to counter environmental uncertainties, providing more room for macroeconomic regulation and effectively resisting various risks. Domestically, China's grain production capacity has steadily climbed, reaching 1.39 trillion jin by 2025. This strong foundation has supported grain output remaining above 1.3 trillion jin for nine consecutive years, surpassing 1.4 trillion jin in 2024 and reaching 1.43 trillion jin in 2025. Internationally, China is the world's largest grain producer, contributing over one-fifth of global cereal output. The increase in per capita grain availability from 483 kg in 2021 to 509 kg in 2025 far exceeds the safety benchmark.
The target of 1.45 trillion jin is based on the foundation built during the previous plan period and is considered achievable with existing conditions and support. Continuous improvements in agricultural infrastructure, technology, and equipment have laid a solid groundwork. To meet the 2030 target, an average annual increase of about 12 billion jin is required. Through intensified efforts to boost grain capacity, promoting large-scale yield increases for major crops, and integrating improvements in farmland, seeds, machinery, and farming methods, achieving this goal is feasible. For the public, a further enhanced grain production capacity means greater assurance of having enough to eat and eating well. Furthermore, as grain prices are the foundation of many other prices, ample production capacity helps stabilize food price fluctuations, safeguarding the people's access to staple foods.
Shifting Focus from Yield to Both Yield and Quality
The planned increase of about 600 billion jin in comprehensive grain production capacity signifies more than just a quantitative change. The plan explicitly calls for a shift in agricultural development from a primary focus on yield to an equal emphasis on both yield and quality. This new target inherently contains requirements for both output volume and product quality, signaling a policy direction that seeks to balance total supply with quality enhancement for more coordinated development.
Specifically, for rice and wheat—China's two staple grains, which together account for nearly half of the annual grain output—the focus will be on stabilizing production while addressing structural shortages. There is a need to increase the supply of high-quality, flavorful rice and specialized wheat varieties with strong or weak gluten properties. Efforts will involve expanding the cultivation of these preferred varieties through improved seeds, techniques, and market mechanisms that reward quality.
For corn and soybeans, the plan emphasizes boosting production capacity and increasing the supply of high-yield, high-oil soybeans. This focus aligns with changing consumption trends, where future demand growth is primarily for feed grains like corn and soybeans, rather than staple grains for direct consumption. It also considers the significant yield potential for these crops, as current per-unit yields lag behind international advanced levels. Soybeans, in particular, represent a key area of supply-demand imbalance and are a major priority for capacity improvement. Promoting high-yield, high-oil soybean varieties can help increase domestic supply, reduce import reliance, and enhance the value-added potential for the oil processing industry. The next steps involve deepening initiatives to promote these superior soybean varieties and continuously optimizing the crop structure.
Strengthening the Strictest Farmland Protection System
What is needed to enhance comprehensive grain production capacity? The strategy of "storing grain in the land and technology" must be deeply implemented. The plan calls for strengthening farmland protection and quality improvement. While progress has been made in recent years, incidents of damaging or illegally occupying farmland still occur, as highlighted in recent judicial cases. Farmland is the lifeline of grain production. Over the next five years, it is imperative to enforce the strictest farmland protection system, optimize agricultural land use planning, strictly manage the balance of land occupation and compensation, and standardize quality checks for reclaimed farmland.
Simultaneously, efforts must focus on advancing high-standard farmland construction and improving irrigation and water conservancy facilities to solidify the foundation for grain production. By the end of 2025, China had cumulatively developed over 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland, with the national irrigated area exceeding 1.09 billion mu. The goal is to strive for 1.35 billion mu of high-standard farmland by 2030 and, by 2035, to develop all suitable permanent basic farmland into high-standard farmland. Current challenges include a tendency to prioritize construction over maintenance. The approach must balance new construction with upgrades, quantity with quality, and building with management. Strengthening operation and maintenance mechanisms is crucial to ensure these farmlands are effectively managed, funded, and maintained, transforming them into modern, productive fields resilient to drought and flood.
The plan also proposes enhancing the modernization and renovation of large and medium-sized irrigation districts, improving the connection between high-standard farmland canal systems and main irrigation network projects. It calls for implementing a new round of black soil protection projects, increasing soil organic matter content, treating acidified farmland, and steadily promoting the comprehensive utilization of saline-alkali land. Protecting and improving farmland quality is a systematic project requiring multiple, coordinated measures. Only by cherishing and utilizing every inch of land effectively can the nation's food security be firmly and reliably maintained.