Abstract

Old National Bancorp will release its second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, 2026 Pre-MKt, with investors focusing on revenue growth, operating profitability, credit costs, and adjusted EPS relative to consensus.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to second-quarter revenue of 717.88 million US dollars, up 15.26% year over year, adjusted EPS of 0.63 (up 21.82% YoY), and EBIT of 363.18 million US dollars (up 33.28% YoY); margin guidance was not provided in the company’s prior update. The company’s core community banking activities are expected to underpin growth as funding costs stabilize and expense discipline supports operating leverage. The most promising revenue engine remains Community Banking, which generated 1.73 billion US dollars in the last reported period; year-over-year growth at the segment level was not separately disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the first quarter of 2026, Old National Bancorp reported revenue of 694.92 million US dollars, GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders of 230.00 million US dollars, adjusted EPS of 0.61 (up 35.56% YoY), and did not disclose gross profit margin or net profit margin in the tool-based data set. A key highlight was operating momentum: EBIT reached 330.22 million US dollars, up 50.91% YoY, with adjusted EPS slightly ahead of consensus and revenue modestly below expectations. The main business driver was the core Community Banking franchise, which delivered 1.73 billion US dollars in revenue in the latest breakdown while the consolidated top line advanced 44.34% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Community banking earnings engine

For the quarter to be reported, the central earnings engine for Old National Bancorp is the spread-based community banking model, where net interest income and cost control set the tone for pre-provision profitability. Consensus implies revenue growth of 15.26% year over year, and an adjusted EPS advance of 21.82%; translating those expectations into the earnings build suggests that net interest margin stability and disciplined noninterest expense are pivotal. The prior quarter’s quarter-on-quarter net profit improvement of 8.02% provides a baseline of momentum; sustaining or improving on that trajectory will likely require loan growth to offset deposit mix normalization and any lingering funding cost pressure. Management’s execution on expense management was visible last quarter in the powerful 50.91% year-over-year EBIT increase, and the same focus is likely to be a determinant of whether operating leverage materializes in the second quarter. With core fees supplementing spread revenue, the mix of revenues should continue to favor predictable banking income, but the cadence of loan yields and deposit betas will define how much of the topline growth translates into EPS.

Fee income and capital markets

Noninterest income lines such as wealth and treasury-related fees offer incremental support to the top line, especially if balance sheet growth normalizes. In the base case that fee drivers hold steady, their contribution can help cushion any quarterly variability in spread income, aiding the path to the forecast 0.63 adjusted EPS. Execution here often shows up in service charges, card, and advisory flows; while specific breakouts are not provided for the quarter, consistency in these lines improves the predictability of EBIT, which is expected to reach 363.18 million US dollars (up 33.28% YoY). The banking subsidiary’s strong external recognition for financial strength and stability underscores the capacity to support fee-based offerings, and that, in turn, can reinforce the franchise’s cross-sell economics within the consolidated revenue base. With the earnings release scheduled, the key read-through from fee lines will be whether they track proportionally with consensus revenue, thereby sustaining the anticipated operating margin translation.

Key stock drivers this quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will likely be most sensitive to the net interest margin print versus expectations, with investors parsing whether total funding costs have flattened and whether asset yields continue to reprice favorably. Operating expenses form the second pillar: if efficiency metrics move in line with last quarter’s operating leverage, that supports the 21.82% forecast EPS growth, while any atypical cost accruals could dilute the translation of the 15.26% revenue growth into bottom-line results. Credit quality and provisioning will be another swing factor; a steady credit cost run rate would let the pre-provision operating strength (as reflected in the prior quarter’s 50.91% EBIT growth) flow to net income without interruption. Capital and shareholder returns remain part of the narrative: board-approved quarterly dividends were reaffirmed earlier this year, and any updates on capital flexibility, including shelf capacity, will be interpreted through the lens of prudent balance-sheet management rather than immediate dilution assumptions. Finally, management’s tone on deposit trends and second-half operating cadence will frame whether current consensus embeds sufficient conservatism or whether estimate revisions are likely.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish opinions outweigh neutral and bearish stances in the current preview cycle, supported by an average rating that sits at overweight and a mean price target of 28.20 US dollars. One well-followed broker reaffirmed a sector-perform view while lifting its price target to 28.00 US dollars, but the broader distribution remains tilted toward positive recommendations, aligning with consensus forecasts for both revenue and EPS growth in the second quarter. Commentaries ahead of the print emphasize the constructive setup: expected revenue of 717.88 million US dollars, up 15.26% year over year, pairs with anticipated adjusted EPS of 0.63, up 21.82% year over year, indicating that pre-provision operating momentum is intact. Supportive views also point to the spring quarter’s execution—EBIT growth of 50.91% and adjusted EPS performance in line to slightly above expectations—as evidence of disciplined cost control and resilient core earnings capacity. The bullish camp highlights three elements for confirmation on July 22, 2026 Pre-MKt: a stable-to-improving net interest margin despite ongoing funding normalization, continued expense discipline that sustains operating leverage, and steady credit costs that allow pre-provision net revenue to flow through to earnings. If those conditions hold, the quarter’s setup is seen as favorable for estimate stability or incremental upward bias, reinforcing the overweight tilt in institutional views.