Market performance diverged in February, with overseas commodity price fluctuations and the Spring Festival calendar effect significantly impacting risk appetite, leading to a style preference for value and pro-cyclical sectors.
Looking ahead to March 2026, the market is entering a period of triple resonance from the Two Sessions policy announcements, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the annual report earnings season. Historically, March, marking the end of the spring rally and the transition into earnings disclosures, tends to be relatively volatile. In terms of rhythm, policy speculation may dominate early in the month, shifting towards fundamental earnings assessments in the mid-to-late period. Market trading logic is expected to transition from being driven by sentiment and valuation to focusing on policy implementation and profit realization. On the policy front, the National Two Sessions convening early in the month will clarify the 2026 GDP target, fiscal deficit, and special bond quotas, with substantive policy support and funding expected for areas like new productive forces, the digital economy, high-end manufacturing, and the low-altitude economy. Internationally, the evolution of geopolitical situations and the narrative around the AI industry remain core variables influencing market risk appetite and allocation. On one hand, the current U.S.-Iran situation involves broader implications than before, with heightened uncertainty compared to 2025. On the other hand, the AI industrial chain continues to show the highest visibility in terms of sector prosperity. Current disagreements overseas regarding the sustainability of spending and the timing of commercial realization are shifting market focus towards the mid-to-upstream segments of AI.
Regarding sector focus, Golden Eagle Fund indicates that a balanced style should be maintained during this geopolitical window. Short-term structure should emphasize value-oriented sectors like cyclical manufacturing, while medium-term allocation should remain centered on the dual themes of core technology and cyclical manufacturing:
1) Value Direction: Monitor developments in the U.S.-Iran situation. Short-term market pricing reflects risk aversion and declining risk appetite rather than global re-inflation. Therefore, short-term cyclical value allocation should also consider trading factors like low valuation and low crowding. While resources like crude oil benefit from the Middle East situation, excessive crowding suggests focusing on less crowded cyclical industries such as chemicals and building materials, aligning with domestic policy trends like the "dual carbon" goals. The export chain might still realize its prosperity due to a combination of factors including stable RMB exchange rates, a potential Trump visit to China, the cancellation of IEEPA tariffs, and resonance with overseas manufacturing. Focus on export-oriented manufacturing capital goods at relatively low levels (e.g., construction machinery/power grid equipment) and potentially surprising segments of the U.S. housing chain (e.g., home furnishings/appliances/hand tools).
2) Technology Direction: Chinese assets are generally less affected by AI-related anxiety compared to U.S. stocks, and China has fewer industrial segments enjoying monopoly barriers and excess profits compared to the U.S. Contemplating the ultimate outcome of AI at this stage is challenging due to the difficulty in covering all key factors. Consequently, the market is collectively pricing the potential impact of AI's endgame, which may lead to mispricing and create potential布局 opportunities. Short-term performance may remain divergent. On one hand, the most beneficial industrial segments might spread from the "picks and shovels" providers to mid-and-upstream areas (e.g., power grid equipment/memory/other key components). On the other hand, within the tech sector, there are areas experiencing supply-demand improvements and price increases due to spillover effects from AI prosperity, including gas turbines, optical fibers and cables, and liquid cooling.
Risk Disclosure: The views, analysis, and forecasts referenced in this material are solely personal opinions based on specific current market conditions and certain assumptions. They are not indicative of suitability for all future market conditions. Past performance of relevant indices or sectors does not guarantee future results and is not indicative of the performance of funds managed by our company. It does not constitute investment advice for readers. Past fund performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The historical investment performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not predict the future performance of any fund. Investing involves risk, and caution is advised. Before making any investment decisions, please carefully read the fund contract, prospectus, product key facts statement, and other legal documents, as well as this risk disclosure statement, to fully understand the risk-return characteristics and features of the fund. Carefully consider all risk factors associated with the fund and assess your own risk tolerance based on your investment objectives, time horizon, experience, and financial situation. Make rational and prudent investment decisions based on an understanding of the product and appropriate suitability advice. This material does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee for any business of our company and is not intended as a legal document.
A golden cross signal has formed in the MACD indicator, with certain stocks showing positive momentum.