JPMorgan: Alibaba-W's Earnings Disappoint in Previous Quarter, Anticipates Negative Market Response

Stock News
03/20

JPMorgan Chase released a research report indicating that Alibaba-W's (09988) financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 showed total revenue increasing 2% year-over-year to RMB 284.8 billion, which was 2% below the bank's and market expectations, a figure considered broadly acceptable. However, adjusted net profit plummeted 67% year-over-year to RMB 16.7 billion, missing the bank's and market forecasts by 40% and 44% respectively, a performance deemed disappointing. The bank maintained its "Overweight" rating on Alibaba with a target price of HK$210. The report noted that key revenue items such as Customer Management Revenue (CMR) and cloud business revenue were largely in line with investor expectations, reflecting that the core narrative of a slowdown in e-commerce monetization cycles and solid AI cloud demand remained intact this quarter. This factor was offset by weaker-than-expected profitability across broad business segments, indicating higher-than-anticipated cost pressures and a weaker short-term profit trajectory. External customer revenue growth for Alibaba's cloud business accelerated to 35% from 29% in the previous quarter, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth. Capital expenditures remained high at RMB 29.0 billion (compared to RMB 31.5 billion last quarter). Revenue from the China commerce segment grew 6% year-over-year, 2% below the bank's expectations, primarily driven by a 56% year-over-year increase in instant commerce revenue; adjusted EBITA fell 43% year-over-year to RMB 34.6 billion, meeting the bank's expectations. International digital commerce revenue growth further slowed to 4%, 3% below the bank's expectations, with adjusted EBITA recording another loss of RMB 2.0 billion. The adjusted EBITA loss for the "All other" segment widened to RMB 9.8 billion, worse than the bank's expectation of an RMB 8.5 billion loss.

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