October 5: Gold market weekly review: International gold prices fell again last week, moving away from the resistance of the 30-week and 60-week moving averages. Bearish forces strengthened, with prices approaching the support of the upward trend channel that began in 2024. The daily chart also shows signs of bottoming and consolidation. Therefore, after maintaining adjustment in the short term, a rebound can be anticipated again upon touching the upward trend channel support.

On the influencing factors: Progress in US-Iran negotiations was minimal, and optimistic reports from various parties were dismissed as false information, continuing to fuel inflation concerns. Additionally, numerous Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance, boosting the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which became the main factors suppressing gold prices. Although some Fed officials later made dovish remarks, and the US planned to release 40 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to ease fuel price pressure, and non-farm payrolls and other data came in significantly below expectations favoring gold prices, the market ultimately maintained a choppy range due to technical pressure, weakening appeal from a stronger stock market, and lingering inflation concerns.

In terms of specific price action: Gold opened lower at $4,278.38 per ounce at the start of the week, immediately recording the weekly high of $4,278.57, failing to fill the gap, and then fell sharply to touch the weekly low of $4,110.67. Afterward, it stabilized and traded in a continuous choppy range, closing on Friday at $4,138.32. Compared to the previous week's close of $4,284.65, the weekly range was $173.98, with a decline of $146.35, or 3.42%.

Looking ahead to this Monday (October 5): International gold opened stronger first, as Friday's US September non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell short of expectations! The US Treasury Secretary downplayed concerns about rising yields; the G7 planned to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil inventories; and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October basically dissipated, among other factors. These reduced bearish pressure, allowing prices to stabilize and giving gold a short-term bias toward choppy trading or recovery. During the day, attention can be paid to the US September S&P Global Services PMI final reading and the US September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with market expectations leaning toward being favorable for gold prices.

On the fundamentals: Gold's downward momentum has increased again, touching a seven-week low and potentially refreshing previous lows. This is the combined result of rising oil prices, inflation concerns, Fed rate hike bets, a stronger dollar, and surging US Treasury yields. It has also temporarily rendered gold's safe-haven attribute ineffective. In the short term, gold still stands at a critical crossroads. If substantial peace agreements emerge in US-Iran negotiations or prospects for opening the Strait, oil prices fall significantly, and inflation expectations continue to cool, gold may regain support and probe higher again. Conversely, if energy tensions persist, economic data continues to show resilience, and the Fed maintains a hawkish outlook, gold may face a longer period of adjustment. However, overall, gold may still face pressure in the short term, but the possibility of approaching a bottom is increasing. Continued central bank gold purchases are also forming solid bottom support; looking back at history, every decline in gold prices has been accumulating opportunities for the next allocation window. If inflation ultimately proves harder to control than the Fed expects, or if geopolitical conflicts further expand and raise systemic risks, gold's value as the ultimate safe-haven asset may re-emerge.

Additionally, reviewing the three historical oil crises, they all ultimately ended with oil prices spiking then falling back, the crises gradually subsiding, and all triggered Western economies falling into recession. Although the Fed was ultimately forced to raise rates each time, this clearly did not produce sustained declines in gold prices, and ultimately a bull market was ushered in again. Also, reviewing the aggressive rate hikes from 2022 to 2023, gold prices did not experience a significant crash, remaining within a certain range and then strengthening and climbing again afterward. Therefore, the current Fed rate hikes have not suppressed gold prices into sustained declines, and are not as strong as previous hiking cycles; so for future gold prices, the high probability is to maintain sideways adjustment, continue to absorb bearish pressure, and then strengthen again to climb to new historical highs. For short-term or intraday/weekly international gold traders, there is no need to focus on fundamental prospects and trend direction. Long-term holders of accumulation gold or physical gold can stagger their positions at current lows or after further pullback lows, waiting for new historical highs to appear again.

Technically, on the monthly level: Gold met resistance and fell back in September, closing below the 5-10 month moving averages, failing to continue August's rebound momentum for further strength. Bearish forces strengthened. Although the Bollinger Bands are contracting, suggesting a choppy bias ahead, the secondary indicators maintain bearish signals, implying further pullback lows and continued choppy consolidation for several months. Below, attention can be paid to the 30-month moving average support level for medium-to-long-term bullish entry. On the weekly level: Gold met resistance and fell back last week, moving away below the Bollinger Band middle rail and the 60-week moving average. The secondary indicators' bullish signals also continued to weaken, and the Bollinger Bands tend to extend downward, increasing bearish prospects. In the short-to-medium term, one can look to the upward trend channel support zone starting from 2024 ($4,100-$3,800) for bullish entry, waiting for the adjustment to complete before strengthening again. On the daily level: Gold has recently been in a low-level choppy adjustment after falling, with signs of bottoming and awaiting a rebound, but the Bollinger Bands still tend toward downward, with further pullback demand. Below, continue to watch the choppy range for long-short positioning, and further upward trendline support for bullish rebound entry.

The following are preliminary support and resistance level ideas for intraday operations, with specific entry and exit points subject to actual position notifications: Gold: watch support near $4,130 or $4,110 below; watch resistance near $4,175 or $4,205 above; Silver: watch support at $60.15 or $59.45 below; watch resistance at $61.55 or $62.00 above.