The global markets experienced a dramatic 'V-shaped reversal' from June 15th to 18th. Internationally, anticipated progress on a US-Iran peace agreement boosted risk appetite, offering a temporary respite in Middle East tensions. Domestically, the Lujiazui Forum released significant signals regarding financial sector opening, while the AI and semiconductor industries received policy support, lifting sentiment across the broader metals sector.

The US dollar initially weakened before rebounding strongly this week. It hovered around the 99.3 level early on but surged past the 100 mark following the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The key drivers were stronger-than-expected inflation persistence, the complete removal of rate cut guidance, a significant upward revision of the projected rate path, and the temporary absence of downward pressure from narrowing interest rate differentials with the ECB. US stocks mirrored this volatility, with the Nasdaq soaring 3.07% at the start of the week, fueled by a rally in AI-related stocks. Following the Fed's hawkish stance on Thursday morning, the three major indices plunged, led by tech and growth stocks, as market pricing swiftly shifted from 'easing bets' to a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate regime.

Tin prices led the non-ferrous metals complex higher initially this week. The spot price for #1 tin on the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals market showed a pattern of rising sharply before retreating. On the 15th, the average price surged by 14,000 yuan to 426,500 yuan per tonne, buoyed by easing geopolitical concerns and tightening supply expectations. It then fell by 4,250 yuan on the 16th to 422,250 yuan per tonne, before a minor rebound to 424,000 yuan on the 17th. On the 18th, prices weakened again, closing at an average of 419,250 yuan per tonne, weighed down by pre-holiday risk-off sentiment and macroeconomic caution. The weekly average price was 423,000 yuan per tonne, up 1,687.5 yuan week-on-week, with significant intra-week volatility and increasing downward pressure emerging in the latter half.

Three core drivers were at play: First, persistent supply disruptions from Myanmar's rainy season continue to constrain mine output, with the Wa State's production recovery lagging behind expectations, reinforcing the tight supply narrative. Second, the market is re-evaluating the long-term pricing logic driven by AI computing power demand, with strong certainty of high tin consumption growth for advanced semiconductor packaging. Third, improving macro sentiment and concentrated bargain-hunting inflows attracted speculative capital due to tin's high volatility. In the latter half of the week, market focus shifted to the hawkish signals from the Fed's June 17-18 meeting. A rebounding US dollar index triggered capital outflows from the base metals sector, capping tin price gains and dampening downstream purchasing interest. Prices entered a phase of high-level consolidation, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting around the 420,000 yuan level.

Policy Impact: The "Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law" took effect on June 15th, designating tin as a core strategic mineral. This has heightened market expectations for stricter mining rights controls and export regulations. Some end-users with immediate needs initiated small-scale inventory restocking this week, leading to slightly improved spot trading activity compared to the prior week.

Overview of Tin Supply Dynamics

Global primary tin ore supply remains tight overall. Myanmar's rainy season is hampering mining and transportation, while policy adjustments in Indonesia are increasing operational costs for mining companies, causing ongoing disruptions in key overseas production regions. Supply of recycled tin feedstock is also constrained. Domestic tin concentrate processing fees remain low, prompting smelters to schedule production based on demand, resulting in limited overall growth in refined tin output. The industry chain exhibits a pattern of "tight ore supply, stable smelting, and diverging demand." Traditional sectors like electronics and tinplate show tepid demand, while AI servers and advanced packaging have become the core growth engines for consumption.

Overview of Tin Demand Dynamics

Tin demand shows an extreme divergence: traditional sectors are under widespread pressure, while emerging segments remain structurally resilient. Electronics and semiconductors are the sole area of above-expectation growth. AI servers and advanced packaging are driving a surge in demand for high-end solder and high-purity tin. In contrast, traditional consumer electronics remain weak, suppressed by seasonal factors and high prices. The photovoltaic sector maintains rigid demand support for tinned copper ribbons, driven by upgrades in N-type cell technology. Traditional segments like tin chemicals, tinplate packaging, and lead-acid batteries show flat demand, with persistently high tin prices squeezing downstream profits and suppressing purchasing willingness. As tin is now listed as a core strategic mineral, expectations of future supply contraction are heating up, leading to sporadic restocking by essential users, though overall industry sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see.

Structure of the Tin Industry Chain

The tin industry chain overall maintains a tight supply-demand balance. The contractionary trend in overseas mine supply is clear, with Myanmar's Wa State recovery lagging and the rainy season further constraining open-pit mining and transport. Indonesia continues to tighten export permits and has increased tin ore royalties, further squeezing global marginal supply. Domestically, falling tin concentrate processing fees and a year-on-year decline in refined tin output are evident. On the demand side, a divergence is apparent, with traditional solder applications facing operational pressure, while long-term demand from AI and new energy sectors remains resilient.

Key industry developments this week included a major domestic tin producer completing the full acquisition of a northern smelter, advancing the integration of northern and southern smelting capacity. SHFE tin futures showed volatile but firm performance, with spot tin ingot supply remaining tight. International institutions have raised their average annual tin price forecasts, as expectations of tightening supply continue to underpin market sentiment.

Macro Outlook and Tin Price Forecast

The domestic market had only four trading days this week due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Domestic metal futures and spot markets are fully closed from June 19th, with no night session on the 18th, significantly increasing the risk of trading time mismatches between domestic and international markets. With a series of key overseas macro events now concluded and volatility in international metals amplified, the probability of price gaps upon the domestic market's reopening after the holiday has increased substantially. Post-holiday, international focus will be on Fed policy signals and geopolitical developments, while domestically, attention will turn to the pace of pro-growth policy implementation and holiday consumption recovery. Tin prices are primarily driven by supply disruptions, AI computing demand expectations, and macro sentiment. The expected trading range is 410,000 to 435,000 yuan per tonne. Investors may consider buying on dips within this range, while exercising caution against chasing rallies, and should closely monitor inventory levels and spot premium signals.