Guoyuan International released a research report stating that the substantial profit forecast reduction for 2025 signals that negative news has been fully priced in. Based on confirmed asset sale gains in 2026 and breakthroughs in high-margin overseas operations, a "turnaround story" is anticipated for CONCORD NE (00182). Investors are advised to look past the apparent profit disruption in 2025 and focus instead on the stability of cash flows and the recovery potential in 2026. The main viewpoints from Guoyuan International are as follows.
The company issued an announcement expecting its unaudited profit attributable to equity holders for the year ending December 31, 2025, to decrease by over 80% compared to the previous year (2024: approximately 800 million yuan). However, cash generated from operating activities during the reporting period increased compared to the same period in 2024.
With this negative catalyst now realized, the current share price is believed to have fully reflected the pessimistic expectations. The company explicitly stated that "cash generated from operating activities increased compared to 2024." This indicates that the company's underlying assets remain healthy and its funding chain is secure. The market should avoid overinterpreting the decline in accounting profit and instead focus more on the company's future development prospects.
The asset recycling model has been validated, locking in earnings for the first half of 2026. On February 9, 2026, the company announced the sale of 100% equity in three project companies (including Yunnan Zhilong and Yongzhou Jiepai) to Zhaoyingnenghé, with an expected unaudited gain of approximately 77.54 million yuan. This will directly boost performance for the first half of 2026 (1H 2026). Furthermore, this transaction validates the company's optimized "develop-build-sell" asset recycling development model. By transferring mature power stations to insurance capital and funds, the company not only recoups funds (total consideration approximately 518 million yuan) for debt reduction and reinvestment but also further optimizes its asset structure.
Overseas solar and storage business is building a second growth engine. The announcement explicitly mentioned that the company "signed multiple long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for solar projects in the United States with globally renowned enterprises." PPA prices in the U.S. electricity market are typically significantly higher than domestic grid parity prices, and U.S. dollar assets offer a hedge. This progress indicates that the company's overseas expansion is moving beyond rhetoric into the phase of securing substantive orders. The high-margin nature of the U.S. energy storage and solar businesses is expected to significantly lift the company's overall gross margin, hedging against the risk of declining domestic electricity prices.