Tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate, with Iran’s most critical economic artery resting on a small island. According to a recent report, Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, has so far been spared from U.S. or Israeli strikes. Satellite tracking data indicates that loading and unloading operations on the island remain normal, with multiple supertankers completing shipments over the past week. However, this apparent calm belies a complex interplay of strategic considerations—including Washington’s calculations, the risk of rising oil prices, and the long-term impact on Iran’s post-war economic recovery—that have so far prevented an attack.

Despite former President Trump’s recent statement about expanding the scope of bombing, discussions have reportedly taken place between the U.S. and Israel regarding the seizure of Kharg Island, bringing the island into the spotlight as never before. An attack on the island would have immeasurable consequences for global energy markets.

Additionally, recent disclosures suggest that the U.S. and Israel are considering sending special forces into Iran in the later stages of military operations to seize highly enriched uranium. This would resemble a small-scale special operations raid rather than a conventional ground invasion.

Kharg Island, located in the northern Persian Gulf about 25 kilometers from the Iranian coast, spans only a few square kilometers but serves as the absolute core of Iran’s oil export system. Nine out of every ten barrels of Iranian oil exported are loaded there. Built by the American oil company Amoco in the 1960s, the island has a maximum loading capacity of 7 million barrels per day. A former U.S. deputy special envoy and current researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy stated, “Without it, Iran’s economy would collapse.”

This vulnerability stems from geography: much of Iran’s coastline is too shallow to accommodate the world’s largest tankers, making Kharg Island an irreplaceable deep-water hub. Its facilities are highly concentrated—storage tanks dot the southern part, while long piers extend into deep water to serve supertankers. Subsea pipelines connect the island directly to several of Iran’s major oil fields. Its strategic importance was proven during the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s, when it suffered heavy bombing.

So far, despite joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, Kharg Island has remained off-limits. According to informed sources, the island was also deliberately avoided during last year’s 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran. A senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former U.S. official explained that Washington has long treated the island as a red line. While attacking it could cripple the current regime, it would also harm any future Iranian government. The Trump administration, he noted, does not wish to destroy the foundations of Iran’s post-war economy or trigger further oil price increases. Israel is also likely to respect this limit.

Militarily, the Israeli Air Force has focused on targets in western and central Iran, while the U.S. military has responsibility for southern Iran and its territorial waters—including the area around Kharg Island. A former U.S. envoy emphasized that both the U.S. and Israel understand that striking Kharg Island could provoke Iranian retaliation against oil infrastructure in Gulf states and severely weaken any successor government.

Still, pressure on this red line is growing. Over the weekend, Trump hinted at expanding strikes beyond military and nuclear targets, suggesting “new areas and groups” could be included. One media outlet reported that seizing Kharg Island is among the options under discussion. A U.S. energy committee director recently claimed that the U.S. could eventually take all oil out of “terrorist” hands, eliminating concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. Within Israel, opposition leaders have called for more aggressive action, including the destruction of Iran’s oil fields and Kharg Island’s energy infrastructure to paralyze the Iranian economy and overthrow the regime.

An energy industry executive expressed concern that the U.S. may grow fond of the idea of attacking Kharg Island, after which all restraints could be lifted.

Beyond tactical considerations, the issue of Kharg Island reflects deeper U.S. strategic intentions. Some former Trump administration officials have hinted that the long-term goal may be to ensure Iran’s oil and gas resources end up in “friendly hands.” A source familiar with Israeli operations stated that the objective remains focused on regime change rather than completely destroying Iran. A senior analyst suggested that Kharg Island would only become a target under extreme circumstances, such as a major Iranian attack on Gulf states prompting retaliation.

For energy markets, the fate of Kharg Island has become one of the most closely watched variables in current geopolitical risk. Every development there will directly influence global oil prices and investor sentiment.