Bond Traders Scrap Bets on July Rate Cut After Strong Jobs Data

Bloomberg

2025/07/03

Treasuries tumbled after a stronger-than-expected jobs report for June prompted traders to exit bets on an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.Shorter-term bonds led the slump with the...

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Ten-year rates jumped 6 basis points to 4.34%.The door for a cut in July is closed, and “the Fed will take the summer off,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. “The needle for the Fed to move was employment” and this report gives Fed Chair Jerome Powell room for a wait-and-see approach to easing policy.Interest-rate swaps showed traders saw almost zero chance for a Fed rate reduction at the July 29-30 meeting, compared with the roughly 25% probability seen before the report. The chance of a move in September was reduced to about 75%.Payrolls increased 147,000 after slight upward revisions to the prior two months, and compared with a median forecast of 106,000 in a Bloomberg survey. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, from 4.2%.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":true,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}