GF Securities released a research report projecting that the average battery capacity per new energy passenger vehicle will increase by 15.0% year-on-year in 2026. The new energy passenger vehicle sector is expected to see new developments in 2026 across policy aspects (purchase tax technical adjustment requirements + fixed-proportion vehicle replacement subsidies + anti-involution measures), supply aspects (concentrated launch of PHEVs with large batteries, etc.), and demand aspects. The purchase tax technical adjustment requirements for new energy vehicles, coupled with the concentrated launch of long-range PHEVs priced under 200,000 yuan, and the concentrated supply of large-battery PHEVs priced over 200,000 yuan are key factors. Furthermore, under the constraints of anti-involution measures and rising raw material costs, leading mainstream automakers may adopt a "increase features and raise prices" competitive strategy. The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

The institution forecasts a 15.0% year-on-year increase in the average battery capacity per new energy passenger vehicle in 2026. Based on compulsory traffic insurance data, the calculation method is as follows: (1) Select automakers accounting for approximately 70% of domestic new energy passenger vehicle sales as a sample, break down their historical sales by model/sales proportion of variants with different battery capacities, analyze the consumer demand trends reflected, and based on this, incorporate predictions considering new policy/supply-side changes in 2026; (2) For smaller automakers, predict based on the typical battery capacity levels of their models and their trend changes. Overall, the institution expects the average battery capacity per domestic new energy passenger vehicle to reach 53.5 kWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of +7.0 kWh, with PHEVs/EVs contributing 4.7 kWh and 2.3 kWh respectively.

Analysis of the Four Major Drivers for the Increase in Average Battery Capacity per New Energy Vehicle in 2026: (1) Driver 1 for PHEV battery capacity increase: Purchase tax technical adjustment requirements + concentrated launch of long-range PHEVs under 200,000 yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requires that from 2026, PHEVs must have a pure electric range of no less than 100 km to continue enjoying purchase tax exemptions. Simultaneously, under the external constraint of anti-involution, BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and Chery will successively launch multiple long-range PHEV models to compete by "increasing features and raising prices." On the demand side, this can effectively reduce users' charging frequency and address user pain points. (2) Driver 2 for PHEV battery capacity increase: Concentrated supply of large-battery PHEVs over 200,000 yuan. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Geely Auto, Leapmotor, SAIC's IM Motors, Chery's Zhijie, and BYD's Denza have all successively applied for large-battery PHEV models priced over 200,000 yuan. On the demand side, the proportion of users choosing large-battery versions remains high, primarily because consumers in this price segment are less price-sensitive and large-battery PHEVs offer a better daily user experience. (3) Driver 1 for EV battery capacity increase: The proportion of low-end pure electric vehicles will decline under the fixed-proportion subsidy policy. (4) Driver 2 for EV battery capacity increase: Under the constraints of anti-involution and rising raw material costs, leading mainstream automakers may adopt a "increase features and raise prices" competitive strategy.

Investment Recommendation: The institution strives to provide "shelf-style" suggestions for reference (corresponding to different sources of returns). It is recommended to focus on: In the passenger vehicle chain (comprehensive operational aspects, similarly below), right-side targets: Geely Auto, BYD (A/H, jointly covered with New Electric Power), Chery Auto, Seres, Li Auto, XPeng Motors, Leapmotor; left-side targets: Great Wall Motors (A/H), Changan Automobile; inflection point (imminent or already occurred) targets: SAIC Motor. In the upstream and downstream chains, right-side targets: Minth Group, Yinlun Co., Ltd., Bethel Automotive Safety Systems, Top Group, Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology, Fuyao Glass (A/H), Zhongchuang Zhiling (A/H), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.,Ltd., XinQuan, Baolong Automotive, Huayang Group, etc.; left-side targets: Yongda Automobiles, New Guomai; inflection point (imminent or already occurred) targets: Nexteer Automotive, Jifeng Auto Parts.

Risk Warning: Decline in industry prosperity; policy stimulus effects falling short of expectations; intensification of industry competition.