NBIS ended the session at USD 243.88, a 7.73% increase.

A dominant $41.12 million net-debit long strangle, alongside a $7.52 million out-of-the-money call purchase, highlighted heavy option activity in NBIS. The large two-sided volatility position suggests expectations for a massive long-term move, while the sizable call leg reflects notable upside interest. However, broader flow leaned slightly bearish as several call-selling and neutral-to-bearish structures tempered the bullish signal, creating a cautiously defensive tone.

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Options Indicators

NBIS has an implied volatility of 92.58%, but its IV percentile is only 21.91%, which suggests that despite the high absolute IV level, current option pricing sits toward the lower end of its own historical volatility range. Combined with an IV/HV ratio of 0.71, this indicates implied volatility is running below realized volatility, reinforcing the view that options are relatively cheaply priced and that volatility conditions are on the low side versus the stock’s recent actual movement.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.41.

Large Trades

A $41.12 million net-debit long volatility combination was the dominant block trade, consisting of a bought 260.0 put and a bought 290.0 call, both expiring on 2027-01-15. With NBIS referenced at 243.88, the 260.0 put was in the money while the 290.0 call was out of the money, and the structure is not a synthetic or spread but a long strangle-like directional/volatility bet funded as a net debit. Strategically, this positioning suggests the trader is paying substantial premium for convex exposure over a long-dated horizon, expressing expectations for a large move with upside participation through the call and downside protection or downside speculation through the put.

A $7.52 million call purchase was the largest single-leg trade, involving 1,500 contracts of the 250.0 call expiring on 2027-01-15. With the stock at 243.88, the strike was out of the money at entry, making this a straightforward bullish upside bet that benefits from a sustained advance above the strike over time. Overall, the bulk-order flow leans slightly bearish, as the aggregate figures show downside exposure still outweighing bullish premium, and the trade mix reflects caution: although there was meaningful long-dated upside interest, the largest order was a premium-paying two-sided volatility position rather than a clean bullish commitment, while the rest of the notable flow contained several call-selling and neutral-to-bearish structures that point to tempered expectations and a mildly defensive market tone.

Strategy Reference

For a low assignment probability, a premium seller could consider selling a 300.0 call or higher strike against long stock or as part of a covered call, since long-dated convex demand appears concentrated near 290.0; alternatively, traders preferring to limit margin may look at a bear call spread such as selling the 270.0 call and buying the 290.0 call in the same 2027-01-15 expiry to define risk while capitalizing on the mildly defensive tone.