The pricing mechanism for gold is influenced by both the real interest rate framework and the de-dollarization framework. The de-dollarization framework, centered on central bank gold purchases, reflects a concentrated demand for 'decentralization' and safe-haven assets, highlighting gold's commodity, monetary, and hedging attributes. Regarding its commodity nature, physical gold demand in China has risen notably, with the central bank resuming gold accumulation from November 2024 and continuing for 19 consecutive months.

In terms of its monetary attribute, U.S. debt issues have created cracks in the dollar's monetary credibility, accentuating gold's role as a non-fiat alternative during the de-dollarization trend. For its safe-haven quality, persistent geopolitical risks sustain market demand for protection, forming a key support for gold prices. The real interest rate framework reflects gold's financial nature; higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset, prompting capital flow from gold to interest-bearing assets.

These two frameworks are not contradictory. De-dollarization provides the background and is a slow-moving variable, while real interest rates are immediate and fast-moving. Since the U.S.-Iran conflict, high oil prices have shifted market interest rate expectations. These fast-moving rate expectations have pulled gold back within the real interest rate framework, though the de-dollarization factor continues to exert influence over the medium to long term. The Federal Reserve has cut rates three consecutive times since initiating its current easing cycle in September 2025. The Fed's April FOMC meeting decided to hold rates steady, marking the third consecutive pause, aligning with market expectations.

According to the latest U.S. data, May non-farm payrolls were robust, adding 172,000 jobs, significantly exceeding forecasts. April's figure was also substantially revised upward to 179,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. The U.S. core PCE for April rose 3.3% year-on-year, matching expectations and increasing from the previous month. Headline PCE for April increased 3.8% year-on-year, also in line with forecasts and showing a significant monthly rise, primarily influenced by elevated energy prices. May CPI climbed 4.2% year-on-year, hitting a three-year high, matching expectations and rising from the prior month.

Short-term, the U.S. and Iran reaching a memorandum of understanding has sharply de-escalated Middle East tensions, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and easing inflation concerns. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut by year-end have receded, the dollar index has fallen sharply, and gold prices have rebounded. Attention turns to Fed Governor Waller's speech this week. With central banks persistently adding to gold reserves, the asset's allocation value remains.

Last week, average daily port shipments for logs reached 63,500 cubic meters, an increase of 6,100 cubic meters from the previous week. Shipments rose in the Shandong region but fell in the Jiangsu region. In May, New Zealand's log shipments to China totaled 1.429 million cubic meters, a decrease of 332,000 cubic meters from April. China's softwood log imports in April were 2.2036 million cubic meters, up 0.87% year-on-year. This week's expected arrivals are 446,000 cubic meters, a 42% increase from the prior week.

As of last week, port inventories for logs stood at 2.77 million cubic meters, a drawdown of 60,000 cubic meters from the week before. The CFR April quote was $125 per JAS cubic meter, down $4 from the previous month, indicating weakened cost support.

Overall, spot prices for radiata pine are operating with relative stability. Domestic arrivals are expected to increase week-on-week, with average daily shipments recovering above 60,000 cubic meters. With U.S.-Iran tensions easing and cost support weakening, logs are expected to trade mainly within a range.

In the previous trading session, spot market prices for some double-coated paper products declined. A few production lines underwent maintenance, potentially reducing supply. Social demand remains tepid, and procurement for publishing has not yet commenced. Overall, the double-coated paper market is characterized by ample supply and demand, with weak fundamental drivers providing support. Prices are expected to move mainly within a range in the short term.