The 16th round of the 2026 refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 14. As of August 7, expectations for a price cut are clear, with the reduction magnitude significantly increasing from the start of the cycle, offering hope for a substantial drop for motorists.

Based on current monitoring, the initial forecast of a 0.09 yuan per liter decrease has now expanded to an estimated 0.30 yuan per liter. However, on August 6, international crude oil saw a strong rebound, which could potentially halt the widening decline.

As of the calculation for the fifth working day, gasoline is expected to be reduced by 390 yuan per ton, and diesel by 375 yuan per ton. Converted to retail prices, 92-octane gasoline is expected to drop by 0.31 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.33 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel by 0.32 yuan per liter. However, attention is needed: if international crude oil prices rebound quickly, the current predicted reduction will narrow. The final outcome and exact reduction amount will be subject to the official announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission.