Driven by premiumization trends, the global smartphone market's average selling price (ASP) continues to grow year-over-year. According to Counterpoint Research's Market Outlook Tracker Report, the global smartphone market ASP is projected to increase from $357 in 2024 to $370 in 2025, reaching $412 by 2029, representing a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Beyond premiumization, the proliferation of 5G and consumer preference for advanced features—even in mid-range models—are driving this steady growth.

Looking ahead to Q2 2025, market performance is trending more toward normalization than previously expected. Counterpoint Research's latest forecast shows global smartphone shipments will grow 2.5% year-over-year in 2025, up from the 1.9% predicted in Q1 but below the 4% initially projected at the beginning of the year. The shipment slowdown is attributed to price increases, supply chain adjustments, and macroeconomic pressures.

The 2025 ASP is expected to rise 3.5% year-over-year to $370, higher than the previously forecasted 2.3%, primarily driven by ASP increases in North America and price recovery supported by economic recovery in India and other Asia-Pacific regions. With ASP growth outpacing shipment growth, the combined improvement from both factors will drive smartphone revenue to increase nearly 6% year-over-year in 2025.

From a long-term perspective, this momentum is expected to sustain revenue growth at a 5% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, reaching $564 billion in annual revenue by 2029.

Following years of turbulence—from pandemic-driven demand fluctuations to supply chain challenges and recent tariff-induced market volatility—the global smartphone market is gradually returning to normalcy. Continued aggressive promotions by U.S. carriers have prevented inventory buildup, while phone manufacturers maintain their regular launch cycles and procurement strategies. Counterpoint's market outlook anticipates a more "normalized" market from H2 2025 through 2026, further supporting predictions of sustained revenue growth through ASP increases and stable sales volumes.

To date, smartphones have remained largely unaffected by U.S. tariffs on trading partners, showing greater resilience compared to automotive, semiconductor, and other consumer electronics sectors. However, uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and a sluggish macroeconomic environment could complicate the situation in the future.

Due to front-loaded shipments in H1, North American shipments are expected to decline in H2 2025, but tariff pass-through will drive full-year ASP growth of 7% year-over-year. Apple's high-end models, continued carrier promotions, and strong foldable performance are expected to push ASP to $984 in 2026. Long-term, the U.S. will play a stabilizing role in maintaining global ASP highs, but as it's already a premium market, it will contribute more gradually to ASP growth through 2029. Additional price spikes from trade environments are not expected, as new costs will be absorbed collectively by suppliers, distributors, and consumers.

In China, Q2 2025 forecasts show ASP trends slightly declining from Q1. Based on the latest data tracking, Counterpoint has revised China's full-year 2025 ASP growth from the previous 4% to 3.6%. Structural improvements are primarily driven by Huawei, OPPO, and Vivo. For Apple, 2025 ASP in China is expected to increase approximately 2% year-over-year; despite slight shipment declines, the rising proportion of Pro models has led to overall performance exceeding downward expectations from Q1. Long-term, China's premiumization trend will continue elevating global ASP and strengthening its influence in the global premium smartphone market.

India will continue supporting the mid-range market, with 2025 ASP remaining below $250, but prices are expected to gradually increase as premiumization trends evolve, reaching $287 by 2029. Feature phone user migration to smartphones, rising demand in urban and rural areas, and growing digitalization will provide stable momentum for mid-range and premium models.

Apple remains the cornerstone of the premium market, driven by its combination of Pro and base models (including the latest "e" and "Air" series), with ASP expected to rise from $919 in 2025 to nearly $1,000 by 2029. The iPhone 16e caused a 9% year-over-year ASP decline in Q1 2025, but ASP is expected to improve with Pro model proliferation in H2. Apple is intentionally pursuing a dual strategy: in shipments, Apple is expanding its consumer base by entering emerging markets and consumer segments through e and Air series; in ASP, Apple is consolidating its premium dominance through Pro models while preparing for its first foldable launch in 2026.

Long-term (2026-2029), the U.S., China, and Europe will remain Apple's core markets, while price-sensitive markets like Latin America, Middle East & Africa, and India will primarily rely on iPhone base models and older versions to drive shipment growth.

Samsung's ASP trend is expected to remain stable. In H1 2025, the brand's flagship performance will lower its full-year ASP, but foldable integration and GenAI will support long-term growth. However, Samsung's significant presence in mid-range segments in emerging markets will limit its ASP growth potential.

Huawei is strengthening ASP growth in its domestic Chinese market following its return. As self-developed chip supply chain constraints ease, Huawei's Mate and Pura series are driving ASP higher. Strong foldable performance further supports ASP growth. HarmonyOS user loyalty adds advantages for premium pricing, and expansion potential in overseas markets looks promising.

During 2024-2025, the emergence of GenAI smartphones has increased bill of materials (BoM) costs by approximately $40-60 per device, initially driving prices higher for these device types. As AI matures, ASP growth will shift from "cost-driven" to "value-driven," as consumers become more willing to pay premiums for devices centered around AI functionality.

While foldable smartphones currently represent less than 2% of global shipments, their ASP continues rising and further influences consumer perceptions of premium products. Apple is expected to launch foldables by end-2026, potentially bringing a new round of ASP increases and reshaping industry foldable benchmarks.

Overall, global smartphone ASP forecasts appear optimistic. Currently, tariff volatility impacts are diminishing while supply chains stabilize, and the proliferation of premium smartphones, GenAI, and foldable innovations will collectively drive moderate ASP increases. This growth will be normalized rather than explosive, allowing ASP to steadily climb despite unfavorable macroeconomic factors.