Despite achieving the world's largest IPO with a $75 billion fundraising and being swiftly added to the Nasdaq 100 index, the stock of SpaceX (SPCX) has failed to halt its post-listing decline. As of July 9, the share price has fallen over 35% from its historical peak of $225.64 reached on June 16. During trading on July 9, it even hit a low of $145.20, dipping below its $150 opening price on its first day of trading.

This pullback is widely interpreted by the market as profit-taking after the "good news is priced in." SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index a mere 15 trading days after its IPO set a record for the fastest addition to the index, attracting a flood of speculative capital in the early listing period. However, the anticipated passive buying demand from the inclusion fell far short of expectations, significantly weakening its price-boosting effect. Furthermore, SpaceX's all-stock acquisition of Cursor diluted existing shareholders' stakes by approximately 3.4%, creating additional selling pressure.

Potential Impact of Upcoming Lockup Expiry

The market is paying even closer attention to the impending flood of insider lockup expirations. At the time of its IPO, the actual freely tradable float of SpaceX was less than 5%, artificially creating scarcity. However, with the commencement of phased lockup releases following the company's Q2 earnings report, insiders could potentially sell up to 44% of the company's shares by early September, which may dramatically increase the number of shares available for trading. Some market observers argue that, given SpaceX has never been profitable and reported a loss of nearly $5 billion last year, its reasonable valuation is significantly lower than current levels.

Sharp Contrast in Analyst Views

In stark contrast to the aforementioned cautious views, major Wall Street investment banks, after the quiet period ended, have almost unanimously issued positive ratings. Some institutions have set price targets far above the current trading level. The divergence between bullish and bearish perspectives has reached an unprecedented scale, with the highest and lowest price targets differing by more than 25 times.