From August through early September, strong seasonal demand supported the egg market, driving prices to a phased rally. Now that Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling is nearing completion, caution is building across the supply chain, and prices are likely to ease modestly after the recent surge, with declines potentially widening in the medium term as post-holiday consumption cools.
During August and the first half of September, egg prices in major producing areas first rose and then entered a high-level consolidation. The period's low of 4.35 yuan per jin was seen in early August. As peak-season demand continued to unfold, market activity warmed steadily, lifting prices to the cycle's high of 5.23 yuan per jin in late August—a cumulative gain of 0.88 yuan per jin, or 20.23%. From late August into early September, downstream restocking largely concluded, sentiment shifted away from bullish expectations, and prices moved into a narrow range near the highs.
Seasonal Demand Release Is the Core Driver Behind the Price Rally
August and September are traditionally the peak consumption months for China's egg market, and the dual recovery of demand from food enterprises and end-users formed the central pillar of this round of price increases. On one side, with the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, production of holiday pastries and baked goods entered its busiest period, and food companies—for which eggs are a core raw material—significantly ramped up purchasing volumes. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, the operating rate among sample food enterprises in August reached 68%, up 5 percentage points month-on-month. This increased procurement activity effectively revitalized egg circulation and provided solid support for the sustained price climb.
On the other side, the start of the school season, combined with the Mid-Autumn holiday, further boosted end-user consumption. In late August and early September, as primary, secondary, and tertiary institutions reopened, campus canteen demand for eggs recovered, while pre-holiday household stockpiling and gift-box consumption also picked up. This improvement in terminal demand reinforced confidence across the distribution chain, prompting traders to purchase more actively. Zhuochuang Information's monitoring data shows that in August, the average daily sales volume of eggs at representative markets in major sales regions reached 984.96 tonnes, up 2.00% month-on-month.
Rising Caution Raises the Risk of a Pullback After Prices Peak
With the Mid-Autumn Festival drawing closer, food enterprises have largely finished their pre-holiday stockpiling, and purchasing volumes are now tapering off. At the same time, egg prices have already accumulated substantial gains and are sitting at relatively elevated levels, heightening expectations of a correction. Caution is steadily building across all segments of the supply chain. The market landscape has visibly shifted: food enterprise demand is contracting, and traders are showing little appetite for restocking at current highs. Instead, most are consuming existing inventories and placing only small, order-driven purchases. Sentiment across the chain has turned conservative, and the market has formally entered a high-level adjustment phase.
In the near term, the risk of prices slipping after the recent surge is growing. However, inventory levels at both the production and distribution stages remain modest—typically around one day's supply—which could provide a floor under prices on the supply side. For mid-September, prices are expected to decline gradually after peaking, with an estimated drop of around 0.20 yuan per jin. Some producing areas may still see localized support from domestic demand, and in certain regions, a narrow rebound of 0.10–0.20 yuan per jin cannot be ruled out.
Looking further ahead, once the Mid-Autumn stockpiling period concludes in late September, and particularly after holiday demand has been pulled forward, consumption is unlikely to recover quickly. The pace of price declines is expected to accelerate, with a projected drop of 0.30–0.40 yuan per jin in late September.
Given the current supply-demand dynamics, price trajectory, and industry sentiment, it is advisable for farming enterprises to closely monitor both the culling volumes and prices of spent hens, align their elimination schedules with the ongoing high-level price adjustment, and avoid the market volatility risks associated with concentrated culling. At the same time, they should remain flexible in their sales strategies, prioritizing steady outbound shipments to lock in breeding profits. For traders, the prudent approach is to maintain lean inventories, adhere to disciplined operations, purchase strictly according to demand, and adopt a buy-on-demand, sell-as-you-go model—avoiding speculative stockpiling at elevated prices to mitigate the operational risks of a post-holiday price decline.