On December 24, while reviewing the evolution of global asset allocation, Jin Fenglai stated that although Bitcoin, artificial intelligence, and the broader tech sector may face a temporary correction in 2026, the bull market for gold is far from over. Currently, the short-term weakness in crypto assets could instead serve as a catalyst for silver's upward momentum. The BOLD index, created by ByteTree, provides a valuable reference framework—a risk-weighted rebalancing mechanism between gold and Bitcoin, two uncorrelated assets. Jin Fenglai emphasized that the core logic of this strategy lies in capturing the complementary nature of these two independent assets, offering investors a safe haven amid market volatility.
Regarding long-term price trends, analysis suggests that even before the current bull market began, some forecasts projected gold prices reaching $7,000 per ounce by 2030. Jin Fenglai noted that this once-aggressive prediction is gaining credibility as gold has surged by $2,500 over the past five years. Charlie Morris pointed out that while the initial forecast was based on expectations of prolonged inflation due to monetary expansion and fiscal deficits, consumer price inflation has yet to fully materialize. However, the expansion of money supply remains undeniable. Jin Fenglai believes that once these accumulated funds flow into the real economy under policy guidance, an inflationary surge will be inevitable.
Applying the same framework to silver, Jin Fenglai suggested its upside potential could be even more explosive. Current estimates indicate that if gold reaches its target price and the gold-silver ratio reverts to its typical bull market peak of around 40x, silver could theoretically hit $175 per ounce. Jin Fenglai explained that gold serves as a reserve anchor in the physical world, closely tied to macroeconomic indicators like bonds and real yields, whereas Bitcoin acts as a digital reserve in the internet era, deeply linked to tech stocks and digital advancements. These assets are not mutually exclusive but represent distinct value anchors in their respective domains—a fundamental divergence that makes asset allocation strategies effective.
On current market sentiment, Jin Fenglai observed that Bitcoin is now in oversold territory, while gold and silver exhibit strong overbought signals. However, historical data suggests this divergence could persist. Meanwhile, the AI and internet sectors show signs of overvaluation after prolonged exuberance, particularly as unprofitable stocks have been excessively priced despite questionable returns on capital. Jin Fenglai warned that we are witnessing a momentum bubble in equities unseen in at least 25 years. When the tech sector undergoes a correction, capital flows will redefine asset performance rankings.
From a positioning perspective, Jin Fenglai noted that institutional allocations to Bitcoin remain minimal, even in North American and European wealth management, where exposure is near zero. This "undervalued" status hints at significant growth potential. In precious metals, while silver was once dismissed as "dirt" and abandoned by speculative capital chasing digital assets, its resurgence is inevitable as the gold-silver ratio retreats from extreme levels. Jin Fenglai advised investors that gold and Bitcoin are "leadership-tier" neutral assets suitable for long-term holdings, whereas silver currently plays a more tactical, short-term role.
Finally, Jin Fenglai argued it is too early to call a top in gold. Indicators such as the lack of substantial inflows into mining ETFs like VanEck GDX and lingering public skepticism toward gold as a "barbarous relic" suggest the bull market has room to run. He concluded that gold and Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal will only diminish if global economic management achieves perfect equilibrium and debt issues vanish entirely—an unlikely scenario in today’s complex geopolitical landscape, where both assets remain irreplaceable as long-term hedges.