Morgan Stanley has maintained its "Overweight" rating on Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) with a target price of $410, according to its latest research report. The investment bank highlights that Tesla Motors will integrate more closely with Musk's other enterprises, including SpaceX and Neuralink.
The integration includes xAI data centers training robotics systems, Starlink providing connectivity services for autonomous vehicles across land, sea, and air, and Optimus robot limbs combining with Neuralink's brain-computer interface technology. This creates a synergistic ecosystem that expands Tesla Motors' application scenarios and market opportunities in artificial intelligence and robotics.
**Financial Engine: EPS Growth and ModelWare Dual-Track Projections**
The research forecasts Tesla Motors' EPS will grow from $2.41 in 2024 to $4.34 in 2027, representing a 21.3% CAGR. Notably, the ModelWare model provides a more conservative 2025 prediction of $0.9, reflecting valuation discrepancies between traditional manufacturing and AI-enabled approaches. By 2026, both models converge at $2.69/$2.2, validating the profitability inflection point as Full Self-Driving (FSD) scales commercially.
Morgan Stanley's valuation comprises five components totaling the $410 target price. The core Tesla Motors automotive business is valued at $76 per share, based on 46 million vehicle sales by 2030, 9.0% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), 2030 EBITDA multiple of 14x, and exit EBITDA margin of 16.2%.
Additionally, network services are valued at $159 per share, assuming $200 average revenue per user (ARPU) by 2040 with 65% penetration rates. Tesla Motors mobility business is valued at $90 per share, based on approximately 75 million vehicles and $146 revenue per mile expectations. Energy business contributes $68 per share, while Tesla Motors' third-party supplier operations add $17 per share.
**Technology Breakthroughs: 2,000 Robotaxis Across 10 US Cities**
Core innovation focuses on autonomous driving and robotics ecosystems. Morgan Stanley expects Tesla Motors to deploy 2,000 robotaxis across 5-10 US cities by late 2026, advancing market expectations by 18 months. Humanoid robots (Optimus) will achieve exponential improvements in physical and cognitive capabilities, with third-party supply value reaching $17 per share.
In the low-altitude economy, US eVTOL shortages will drive aerial robot deployment at 10x ground robot levels, creating a $5 trillion market. Tesla Motors is positioned to leverage its technological advantages in this emerging sector, providing innovative solutions for future transportation and logistics.
**Ecosystem Integration: Muskonomy Synergy and US-China Relations**
Tesla Motors' ecosystem synergy with xAI data centers, Starlink, and Neuralink (termed "Muskonomy") continues deepening. US-China relations in AI robotics show strategic balance trends—China's AI-enabled manufacturing advantages will expand over the next 3-5 years, followed by technology reflow through intellectual property exports. US companies are accelerating Chinese AI patent adoption, forming a "Chinese Innovation-US Commercialization" paradigm.
**Risk Matrix: Upside Potential and Execution Challenges**
Upside risks include service revenue growth, increased FSD attachment rates, new battery technology breakthroughs, and new model launches like Cybertruck. Downside risks focus on execution challenges (multi-factory production ramp), market acceptance of Dojo computing services, China geopolitical risks, and equity dilution pressures.
Historical data shows target prices rising from $90.67 in 2020-2025 to $410, confirming analysts' continued confidence in Tesla Motors' technology roadmap.
Morgan Stanley concludes that Tesla Motors has transformed from an electric vehicle manufacturer to an AI-robotics platform company. Its valuation model must incorporate multiple growth drivers including robotaxis, Optimus limbs, and low-altitude economy opportunities. The current $410 target reflects both existing business valuations and discounted future value from the $5 trillion humanoid robot market, establishing a robust investment thesis across market cycles.