Gold prices opened lower on August 11, experiencing a brief corrective pullback, but the decline halted at the 4,313 mark before launching a strong rebound. By the close, gold surged nearly 1.14%, breaking through to a new high around 4,390. Today's morning session saw continued upside momentum, with prices stabilizing above 4,400 and briefly touching a new intraday high near 4,435 before showing signs of a top and pullback. Since last week, gold has accumulated a gain of 7.28%, marking the largest single-week increase since January 2026, underscoring the robust bullish offensive.

The primary catalyst for this rally has been the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls data released last Friday. Prior to the release, the market's probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September stood at 67%, but after the data, this expectation quickly dropped to 44%. This triggered a sharp decline in the real yield of U.S. Treasuries, while the U.S. dollar index broke below key support levels. Consequently, a significant influx of speculative and allocation funds has entered the precious metals market, effectively removing the ceiling on gold's upside.

Additionally, the Hormuz Strait negotiations have fallen short of expectations, with deep divisions between Iran and the U.S. on core issues such as sanction relief and compensation terms. This has significantly dampened the outlook for a full reopening of the waterway. Amid these geopolitical uncertainties, crude oil surged nearly 7% in a single day, creating a positive feedback loop for gold. The geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven capital into gold, while the sustained rise in oil prices is reigniting global inflation concerns. Gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge is once again attracting capital, amplifying the recent rally with a dual boost from interest rate tailwinds and risk aversion. This has kept prices elevated in a high-range consolidation pattern, with minimal short-term pullbacks.

After two consecutive days of strong gains, bullish sentiment has entered a phase of extreme fervor. However, the current market is not a one-way, relentless uptrend. Multiple latent bearish risks may be beginning to accumulate. In the short term, gold is likely to enter a period of high-range, wide volatility rather than a sustained straight-line rally. The outlook remains cautious, with the potential for a significant correction before any further upward moves.