Signs of more liquefied natural gas tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have pushed European gas prices slightly lower. With the cold season approaching, this is expected to ease some supply concerns.

Benchmark futures fell as much as 1.6%, though they remain within the trading range seen for most of the past two weeks. Analysis firm Kpler said the number of LNG carriers passing through the Strait of Hormuz in September was the highest for any single month since the Iran conflict broke out.

Pakistan is in talks to ensure the safe passage of two October cargoes sourced from Qatar. Even a modest recovery in Middle Eastern supply is good news for Europe and other gas-importing nations.

Countries are competing for limited LNG cargoes; if supply disruptions persist, winter prices could see even sharper spikes. But there are currently no signs that a major diplomatic breakthrough will come soon enough to drive a significant supply recovery.

European gas prices remain more than twice their pre-war levels, and need to stay elevated to attract cargoes. Storage facilities are currently only 72% full, below the seasonal average of 87%.

Weather is also easing some risks, with meteorological agencies increasingly expecting warmer-than-usual temperatures in the UK and northwestern Europe this autumn and winter.