UBS has released a research report indicating that Chinese bank stocks will begin announcing their first-quarter results starting next Monday (the 20th). The results are expected to act as a positive catalyst, particularly for the four major state-owned banks, which are benefiting from further revenue improvements. Joint-stock banks, however, may show divergent performance. Overall, core profit growth for national banks in the first quarter is projected to accelerate to 3.5% (compared to a 2.2% increase in the fourth quarter of last year), with revenue growth rising to 3.8% (compared to 2.4% previously). Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) is expected to increase by 4.8% (versus a 2% rise last quarter). However, net profit growth is forecast to be relatively moderate at 1.2% (compared to 2.4% in the previous quarter), mainly due to increased provisions. In terms of revenue drivers, the report expects net interest margins for Chinese banks to remain stable quarter-on-quarter, despite pressure from mortgage repricing. New loans are projected to be roughly flat year-on-year, implying a slight slowdown in growth, but net interest income should still maintain positive growth (+3.3%, compared to +1% in Q4). Simultaneously, improvements in fee-based income and cost control will support the rebound in PPOP growth. In contrast, net profit growth may lag behind revenue and PPOP growth, reflecting persistently high risks in unsecured retail loans and real estate, prompting banks to increase provisions for potential asset quality pressures. Furthermore, details of the capital replenishment plans for Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) are still pending announcement, with the price per share and fundraising scale being critical factors. Investor focus is likely to center on several areas: the trend in net interest margins, which, benefiting from lower deposit costs and a low base in the fourth quarter, could lead to a sequential expansion for Bank of Communications (BANKCOMM), China Construction Bank (CCB), Ping An Bank Co.,Ltd., and MINSHENG BANK. Other areas of focus include the growth rate of fee income, the strength of bond trading revenue, and the situation regarding new non-performing loans. UBS stated that the ongoing improvement in the fundamentals of Chinese banks provides continued support. It expects Bank of China (BOC), BANKCOMM, Ping An Bank Co.,Ltd., and CITIC BANK to outperform their peers during the late-April earnings season, while Industrial Bank Co.,Ltd. and MINSHENG BANK may lag behind. Year-to-date, Chinese bank stocks have outperformed the MSCI China Index by 11%, with particularly strong performance in March amid heightened geopolitical risks. Last year's results demonstrated fundamental improvements, providing further support for share prices. Looking ahead, despite geopolitical uncertainty, weakness in the property market, Renminbi appreciation, and export risks, the bank remains optimistic about defensive banking stocks. The dividend yield for H-share banks remains above 5%, and fundamental improvements are expected to continue supporting share prices. The top picks for the next 12 months are the H-shares of CITIC BANK, BOC, CCB, and ICBC.