On October 27, 2017, General Motors (GM) CEO Mary Barra announced the company's commitment to achieving zero emissions by 2030, vowing to "say goodbye to gasoline, diesel, and carbon emissions." Shortly after, Ford Motor Company revealed plans in 2018 to nearly triple its investment in electric and hybrid vehicles by 2022, targeting the launch of 40 new models. However, CWG Markets FX notes that rising cost pressures, slowing EV adoption rates, and a reversal in U.S. policy support are casting greater uncertainty over the future of electric vehicles in the American auto industry.
According to Morningstar senior analyst David Whiston, U.S. EV market penetration "has stalled." Last week, GM announced a $1.6 billion loss from scaling back its EV operations due to weak demand projections and recent U.S. policy shifts, including the expiration of federal EV tax credits and relaxed emissions standards. CWG Markets FX suggests this reflects how subsidy reductions are rapidly impacting industry profitability. In fact, major automakers like Ford, GM, and Stellantis are currently operating at a loss on their EV models.
The federal EV tax credit officially expired on September 30, marking the end of a key driver for U.S. EV sales since its introduction in 2008. In Quebec, Canada, GM and South Korean steelmaker POSCO suspended the second phase of their Ultium CAM battery project due to "changing market dynamics." This also led Brazilian mining giant Vale SA to cancel plans for a supporting nickel sulfate plant. CWG Markets FX highlights this chain reaction as evidence of the upstream supply chain's high sensitivity to policy and market expectations.
Despite a 40% surge in U.S. EV sales in Q3—a record high—driven by pre-subsidy expiration demand, this "front-loaded" growth failed to reverse the broader downtrend. Cox Automotive data shows Q2 U.S. EV sales fell 6.3% year-over-year, indicating a clear suppression of growth momentum. BloombergNEF predicts that under current policies, global EV sales will fall short by approximately 14 million units by 2030. CWG Markets FX argues that short-term volatility in the U.S. EV market reflects a complex interplay between policy, costs, and consumer confidence.
Weak consumer confidence is equally evident. An Edmunds survey identifies insufficient charging stations, long charging times, and vehicle reliability as primary reasons consumers avoid EVs. Ford CEO Jim Farley even projected a potential 50% drop in EV sales post-tax credit expiration. Additionally, the average U.S. new car price has surpassed $50,000 for the first time, while EVs remain roughly $7,000 more expensive—further exacerbating affordability concerns. CWG Markets FX believes price gaps and infrastructure shortcomings will remain core barriers to EV adoption in the coming years.
An RBC Capital Markets report attributes the U.S. EV slowdown to widening price disparities between new and used vehicles. The average price of a used battery-electric vehicle (BEV) is now around $30,000, on par with used internal combustion engine cars. Rising tariffs may further inflate new car prices, steering demand toward used models. RBC has consequently revised its 2030 U.S. EV penetration forecast from 35% down to 17%.
EY's September 2025 "Mobility Lens Forecaster" model now projects the U.S. will reach 50% EV penetration by 2039—five years later than previously expected. CWG Markets FX suggests this trend underscores how subsidy withdrawals and policy uncertainty will continue slowing the U.S. EV transition. In contrast, while Europe has lowered its penetration forecast from 50% to 40%, it maintains stricter regulatory quotas.
Global EV sales reached 2.1 million units in September. CWG Markets FX observes that the global EV landscape is undergoing a reshuffle, with U.S. setbacks potentially eroding its strategic advantage in the clean energy race.